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Post by Boricanator on Mar 17, 2024 21:46:35 GMT
Any way you slice it brah, Biden is in a lot of trouble right now...when both sides start campaigning heavily and we have the conventions, if he can't get these numbers up, he is absolutely done.... I am not liking this underestimation of Trump I am seeing, like Biden laughing off polls at a recent event....this was ths same arrogance we saw with the Hillary campaign. Hillary was a head of the polls, unlike Biden. Biden is the underdog right now. He is polling badly, like Trump was in 2016. There are Democrats, even establishment types, that are crying for him to drop out. I think betting markets are against him, as well. Hell, I am probably one of the few non-Republicans bullish on Biden in this forum. But the keys make any polls irrelevant. And they have been doing so for decades.
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Post by Boricanator on Mar 17, 2024 21:51:11 GMT
Polls this early are meaningless. The oppositional party always gets a bump around this time because their primary is more active.
What's kicking Biden in the teeth right now is with the progressive base who want a ceasefire in Israel.
They are leveraging the fear of Trump against the DNC.
It's not a safe assumption it'll last until the election.
I said "right now." There is also inflation, which is the real killer, and then the GOP is going to continue to hammer him on immigration....these are not blips like Israel.... But is inflation and immigration really a big killer? The red wave was a failure and Republicans have been on a consistent losing streak since Biden was elected. Polls say one thing, but election results say something else. It seems Americans are not that upset with these issues. Biden himself has been outperforming the primary polls.
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Post by theBROKEdontrump on Mar 17, 2024 22:26:39 GMT
I said "right now." There is also inflation, which is the real killer, and then the GOP is going to continue to hammer him on immigration....these are not blips like Israel.... But is inflation and immigration really a big killer? The red wave was a failure and Republicans have been on a consistent losing streak since Biden was elected. Polls say one thing, but election results say something else. It seems Americans are not that upset with these issues. Biden himself has been outperforming the primary polls. The only encouraging thing I saw was the recent NY House race for Santos' old seat...Suozzi walloped Pilip 54% to 48%...which may seem like "only 6%," but this is an ethnically diverse area that represents all income and education levels from working class to multi-millionaires in mansions....it also includes a very large Jewish population which probably padded Pilip's numbers a bit as she had the Israeli sympathy thing going for her as well and she was running ads with old pics of her in and IDF uniform and so on.... I see that as kind of a "mini-swing state" as states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan are not too different from that Congressional District, plus they have the added bonus of a large black population, particularly black female population....the 3rd District does not have any black majority areas from what I see based on a quick glance and my limited knowledge of Long Island's north shore.
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Post by Boricanator on Mar 17, 2024 22:51:00 GMT
But is inflation and immigration really a big killer? The red wave was a failure and Republicans have been on a consistent losing streak since Biden was elected. Polls say one thing, but election results say something else. It seems Americans are not that upset with these issues. Biden himself has been outperforming the primary polls. The only encouraging thing I saw was the recent NY House race for Santos' old seat...Suozzi walloped Pilip 54% to 48%...which may seem like "only 6%," but this is an ethnically diverse area that represents all income and education levels from working class to multi-millionaires in mansions....it also includes a very large Jewish population which probably padded Pilip's numbers a bit as she had the Israeli sympathy thing going for her as well and she was running ads with old pics of her in and IDF uniform and so on.... I see that as kind of a "mini-swing state" as states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan are not too different from that Congressional District, plus they have the added bonus of a large black population, particularly black female population....the 3rd District does not have any black majority areas from what I see based on a quick glance and my limited knowledge of Long Island's north shore. There was another flip this year. www.meidastouch.com/news/democrats-flip-florida-state-house-district-in-special-electionAnd there were many other in 2022 and 2023. There seems to be a trend of Democrats flipping swing areas and Republicans underperforming in red areas. We’ll see what happens.
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Post by Dracula on Mar 17, 2024 22:55:54 GMT
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Post by dlancer on Mar 17, 2024 23:32:29 GMT
Polls this early are meaningless. The oppositional party always gets a bump around this time because their primary is more active.
What's kicking Biden in the teeth right now is with the progressive base who want a ceasefire in Israel.
They are leveraging the fear of Trump against the DNC.
It's not a safe assumption it'll last until the election.
I said "right now." There is also inflation, which is the real killer, and then the GOP is going to continue to hammer him on immigration....these are not blips like Israel.... Inflation cuts into his polling with swing voters, but not his base who understands inflation is a global problem where the US is doing among the best.
The only way his numbers are this low is if a section of his base is rejecting him.
Michael Moore just proved it in Michigan where over 13% went uncommitted.
Progressives are actively organizing against Biden "right now."
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Post by jackspicer on Mar 18, 2024 4:27:43 GMT
They are verifiably false. You're just in a cult, that's all. No, they are true. You just lack the intelligence to understand. Which is why you are usually wrong. There is no social unrest, the Biden administration has no scandals, there are no military failures and Trump is not charismatic. Lichtman himself agrees with me in several of them. I’ll take the word of the guy that has been right ever time, except once, during the last 40 years over you. There is unrest and scandals regarding the border, and the alleged 'genocide' that liberals believe Israel/Biden are committing. The unconstitutional lawfare of Biden's DOJ is another scandal. The Afghanistan withdrawal debacle was a military failure. And yes, Trump is charismatic. He can draw many thousands of people to his rallies, and Biden can draw about 3 family members.
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Post by Boricanator on Mar 18, 2024 6:38:50 GMT
No, they are true. You just lack the intelligence to understand. Which is why you are usually wrong. There is no social unrest, the Biden administration has no scandals, there are no military failures and Trump is not charismatic. Lichtman himself agrees with me in several of them. I’ll take the word of the guy that has been right ever time, except once, during the last 40 years over you. There is unrest and scandals regarding the border, and the alleged 'genocide' that liberals believe Israel/Biden are committing. The unconstitutional lawfare of Biden's DOJ is another scandal. The Afghanistan withdrawal debacle was a military failure. And yes, Trump is charismatic. He can draw many thousands of people to his rallies, and Biden can draw about 3 family members. Wrong again. There is no social unrest. Social unrest would be like the 1968 Vietnam protests or the 2020 George Floyd protests. We don’t have anything like that. There are no scandals. The scandals would have to be something similar to Watergate. The border and Israel don’t qualify as nobody is getting indicted or imprisoned for it. Plus, the later is a different country. There is no unconstitutional lawfare at the DOJ. People getting indicted for committing crimes. Nothing more. As Lichtman said, Afghanistan doesn’t qualify as a failure since no one cares anymore. Not even Republicans. Trump was not given the charismatic key in 2016 or 2020. He won’t be given it for 2024. He only appeals to his base. To be charismatic, you need to go beyond your base like Reagan and Obama. Trump lost the popular vote twice.
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Post by ShadowSouL Likes This on Mar 18, 2024 6:50:08 GMT
Any way you slice it brah, Biden is in a lot of trouble right now...when both sides start campaigning heavily and we have the conventions, if he can't get these numbers up, he is absolutely done.... I am not liking this underestimation of Trump I am seeing, like Biden laughing off polls at a recent event....this was ths same arrogance we saw with the Hillary campaign. The difference being that Biden is an incumbent President. And for the last 28 years, incumbent Presidents have won second terms. With one major exception. And we all know whom that one major exception was.
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Post by abbey1227 on Mar 18, 2024 6:57:09 GMT
Any way you slice it brah, Biden is in a lot of trouble right now...when both sides start campaigning heavily and we have the conventions, if he can't get these numbers up, he is absolutely done.... I am not liking this underestimation of Trump I am seeing, like Biden laughing off polls at a recent event....this was ths same arrogance we saw with the Hillary campaign. The difference being that Biden is an incumbent President. And for the last 28 years, incumbent Presidents have won second terms.
With one major exception. And we all know whom that one major exception was.
Check out how often an incumbent has received more votes the 2nd time around........even from minority groups.......and still lost?
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Post by Boricanator on Mar 18, 2024 7:15:11 GMT
The difference being that Biden is an incumbent President. And for the last 28 years, incumbent Presidents have won second terms.
With one major exception. And we all know whom that one major exception was.
Check out how often an incumbent has received more votes the 2nd time around........even from minority groups.......and still lost?
It happened in 2020, which also had the highest voter turnout since 1952. So, it makes sense.
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Post by abbey1227 on Mar 18, 2024 7:26:11 GMT
Check out how often an incumbent has received more votes the 2nd time around........even from minority groups.......and still lost?
It happened in 2020, which also had the highest voter turnout since 1952. So, it makes sense.
Sure.........it makes total sense. That's the ticket. yeah
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Post by jackspicer on Mar 18, 2024 7:51:14 GMT
There is unrest and scandals regarding the border, and the alleged 'genocide' that liberals believe Israel/Biden are committing. The unconstitutional lawfare of Biden's DOJ is another scandal. The Afghanistan withdrawal debacle was a military failure. And yes, Trump is charismatic. He can draw many thousands of people to his rallies, and Biden can draw about 3 family members. Wrong again. There is no social unrest. Social unrest would be like the 1968 Vietnam protests or the 2020 George Floyd protests. We don’t have anything like that. There are no scandals. The scandals would have to be something similar to Watergate. The border and Israel don’t qualify as nobody is getting indicted or imprisoned for it. Plus, the later is a different country. There is no unconstitutional lawfare at the DOJ. People getting indicted for committing crimes. Nothing more. As Lichtman said, Afghanistan doesn’t qualify as a failure since no one cares anymore. Not even Republicans. Trump was not given the charismatic key in 2016 or 2020. He won’t be given it for 2024. He only appeals to his base. To be charismatic, you need to go beyond your base like Reagan and Obama. Trump lost the popular vote twice. Biden himself is being blamed by democrat voters for facilitating "genocide". How is that not a scandal? There is absolutely lawfare from the Biden administration, and yes, it's a huge scandal. Trump's numbers increase every time he is selectively and maliciously prosecuted. Just because you're in a cult and refuse to see it doesn't mean it's not happening. It's irrelevant if Lichtman doesn't care about Afghanistan. It was a military failure.
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Post by abbey1227 on Mar 18, 2024 7:57:57 GMT
As Lichtman said, Afghanistan doesn’t qualify as a failure since no one cares anymore. Not even Republicans.Biden himself is being blamed by democrat voters for facilitating "genocide". How is that not a scandal? There is absolutely lawfare from the Biden administration, and yes, it's a huge scandal. Trump's numbers increase every time he is selectively and maliciously prosecuted. Just because you're in a cult and refuse to see it doesn't mean it's not happening. It's irrelevant if Lichtman doesn't care about Afghanistan. It was a military failure.
Jesus..........some of the F'd up thoughts they come up with
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Post by Boricanator on Mar 18, 2024 8:00:39 GMT
Wrong again. There is no social unrest. Social unrest would be like the 1968 Vietnam protests or the 2020 George Floyd protests. We don’t have anything like that. There are no scandals. The scandals would have to be something similar to Watergate. The border and Israel don’t qualify as nobody is getting indicted or imprisoned for it. Plus, the later is a different country. There is no unconstitutional lawfare at the DOJ. People getting indicted for committing crimes. Nothing more. As Lichtman said, Afghanistan doesn’t qualify as a failure since no one cares anymore. Not even Republicans. Trump was not given the charismatic key in 2016 or 2020. He won’t be given it for 2024. He only appeals to his base. To be charismatic, you need to go beyond your base like Reagan and Obama. Trump lost the popular vote twice. Biden himself is being blamed by democrat voters for facilitating "genocide". How is that not a scandal? There is absolutely lawfare from the Biden administration, and yes, it's a huge scandal. Trump's numbers increase every time he is selectively and maliciously prosecuted. Just because you're in a cult and refuse to see it doesn't mean it's not happening. It's irrelevant if Lichtman doesn't care about Afghanistan. It was a military failure. That’s just a policy difference. A scandal has to be something like Watergate where people were indicted and imprisoned. Even Iran-Contra was not a scandal that hurt Bush in 1988. And that was worse than anything that has happened with the Biden. It is not lawfare. And it is no scandal. No one has been imprisoned or impeached over it. Don’t bring polls. They are irrelevant to this discussion. Lichtman created this system and has been consistently right for 40 years. So, I’ll take his word over yours. The problem is that you are in a cult and are stupid. You don’t have the critical thinking skills to understand how the Keys work.
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