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Post by politicidal1 on Apr 24, 2024 13:31:49 GMT
Trump appeared to take 83% of the vote against Nikki Haley, his former rival in the Republican primaries. Still, Haley won the votes of more than 155,000 Pennsylvanians across the state that is considered essential to victory in November, although she ended her campaign more than a month ago. TEXT: Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley won around 16% of the vote in Pennsylvania’s GOP primary on Tuesday, despite dropping out of the race in early March. Former President Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, easily soared to victory on Tuesday, winning about 786,000 votes and the state’s 16 delegates. But Haley’s showing — even though she is no longer running — may portend trouble for Trump as he seeks to shore up support in key swing states needed to secure a path to the White House in November. In 2020, Joe Biden won Pennsylvania by less than 1.5%, or about 80,000 votes. And in 2016 the margin was even smaller, with Trump winning the state by less than 45,000 votes. The state awards 19 Electoral College votes toward the ultimate 270 needed to become president. Axios notes that Trump’s campaign has begun to show cracks in some states as the presidential race trudges toward the general election. About a fifth of Republican primary voters in Arizona and Wisconsin — both swing states themselves — cast a ballot for someone other than the former president. Trump is currently on trial in New York where he faces 34 felony counts for falsifying business records to cover up a hush money payment to an adult film star. The case is set to take up to eight weeks, and the former president has raged at the judge and prosecutors for taking him away from the campaign trial. Biden himself handily won the Democratic primary on Tuesday, securing 93% of the vote and the state’s 153 delegates. But the president has also faced frustration with voters in key states, including Michigan, where more than 100,000 people voted for “uncommitted” in the state’s primary to protest the Biden administration’s policies toward Israel. www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trump-pennsylvania-nikki-haley_n_6628a7f3e4b096c7bac6b014
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Post by PaulsLaugh on Apr 24, 2024 13:32:34 GMT
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Post by Boricanator on Apr 24, 2024 13:40:39 GMT
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Post by dlancer on Apr 24, 2024 14:13:38 GMT
She would be a stronger third-party candidate than Perot.
But the GOP would never allow it.
I'm sure she'd rather sit it out and try again in four years anyway.
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Post by averagejoe2021 on Apr 24, 2024 14:30:01 GMT
Well yes... and no. The polls have demonstrated they've been remarkably accurate but only within the margin of error at the time of the election. But we're far out and things will change. Hillary had a 10 point lead at this point in 2016 and Biden had a 5 point lead. However, we have to be honest enough to also recognize these polls are the worst for an incumbent president for reelection at this time. We will have to see if he can recover.
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Post by ofunknownorigins on Apr 24, 2024 14:39:00 GMT
Haley voters are people who hate Trump. This is good news.
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Post by CowherPowerForever on Apr 24, 2024 14:50:19 GMT
I gave her my vote.
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Post by Boricanator on Apr 24, 2024 15:06:11 GMT
Well yes... and no. The polls have demonstrated they've been remarkably accurate but only within the margin of error at the time of the election. But we're far out and things will change. Hillary had a 10 point lead at this point in 2016 and Biden had a 5 point lead. However, we have to be honest enough to also recognize these polls are the worst for an incumbent president for reelection at this time. We will have to see if he can recover. Polls have also been way off in the margin of error. And there is a pattern of Democrats and Biden outperforming the polls in the last two years.
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Post by CowherPowerForever on Apr 24, 2024 15:11:08 GMT
Well yes... and no. The polls have demonstrated they've been remarkably accurate but only within the margin of error at the time of the election. But we're far out and things will change. Hillary had a 10 point lead at this point in 2016 and Biden had a 5 point lead. However, we have to be honest enough to also recognize these polls are the worst for an incumbent president for reelection at this time. We will have to see if he can recover. Polls have also been way off in the margin of error. And there is a pattern of Democrats and Biden outperforming the polls in the last two years. I think everyone wants answers asap, and that won't happen. Trump has been leading in pretty much every swing state when third party names are factored in. While that lead has been slipping lately for Trump, April doesn't matter. What will be the numbers in August afterwards, that's what matters.
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Post by averagejoe2021 on Apr 24, 2024 15:18:16 GMT
Well yes... and no. The polls have demonstrated they've been remarkably accurate but only within the margin of error at the time of the election. But we're far out and things will change. Hillary had a 10 point lead at this point in 2016 and Biden had a 5 point lead. However, we have to be honest enough to also recognize these polls are the worst for an incumbent president for reelection at this time. We will have to see if he can recover. Polls have also been way off in the margin of error. And there is a pattern of Democrats and Biden outperforming the polls in the last two years. Well....not really....its still been within the margin of error. Now granted, SOME outliers have definitely been off at the time of election (both the last two years and prior)...but the RCP has been spot on for the last 20 years. And we can also see that Trump outperformed those polls when he was on the ballot. Take a look at the polls election day 2016 for example. You will see Hillary was ahead yet it was still within the margin of error. And the variation does depend upon state, of course. Trump outperformed in say Wisconsin, Texas, Ohio, and Florida more than he did in say Colorado. This pattern therefore does not serve the Democrats well especially since the last 2 presidentials they lost ground from here on out last two times. This is in top of the fact Biden has the lowest approval/disapproval rating for any president running for re-election....which include those who have lost (Carter and Bush SR).
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Post by PaulsLaugh on Apr 24, 2024 15:46:23 GMT
She would be a stronger third-party candidate than Perot.
But the GOP would never allow it.
I'm sure she'd rather sit it out and try again in four years anyway.
Haley is young and has herself set up for 2028, providing Trump doesn’t win and suspends all future elections because they are all rigged or some other excuse.
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Post by ayatollah on Apr 24, 2024 15:50:24 GMT
She would be a stronger third-party candidate than Perot.
But the GOP would never allow it.
I'm sure she'd rather sit it out and try again in four years anyway.
Haley is young and has herself set up for 2028, providing Trump doesn’t win and suspends all future elections because they are all rigged or some other excuse. She is a terrible candidate and actually worse than Trump. On most issues she is essentially the same, but she doesn't shoot her mouth off so basically a tougher opponent.
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Post by PaulsLaugh on Apr 24, 2024 15:52:21 GMT
Haley is young and has herself set up for 2028, providing Trump doesn’t win and suspends all future elections because they are all rigged or some other excuse. She is a terrible candidate and actually worse than Trump. On most issues she is essentially the same, but she doesn't shoot her mouth off so basically a tougher opponent. Thanks, but I’m not planning on voting for her.
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Post by ayatollah on Apr 24, 2024 15:52:45 GMT
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Post by mikemonger on Apr 24, 2024 16:01:31 GMT
It's not that they're unreliable. It's that they simply don't matter months and months out. By October they'll be far more indicative of what's likely to happen.
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