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Post by Boricanator on Oct 6, 2024 1:13:04 GMT
The most likely scenario I see is Democrats taking MI and PA. I just don’t see Democrats losing those states when they won every statewide office. Will the state that voted for John Fetterman and Josh Shapiro really vote for Trump? It could happen, but it is not likely.
Arizona has a similar situation. Every statewide office is controlled by Democrats. Why would they shift right now after shifting left in 2020 and 2022? It just doesn’t add up.
WI seems to have shifted left in 2022 by relecting Evers. So, we’ll see. It seems more likely to be Democrat.
Georgia will be difficult for Democrats. The state is very Republican and has two Democratic Senators because the GOP nominated nuts. However, Georgia seems to like traditional Republicans like Kempt. It’s the MAGA Republicans that struggle there. We shall see.
Nevada seems to be swinging right. But the recent polls seems good for Democrats.
I stopped predicting a long time ago because elections in the U.S. are making less sense every day. But this scenario is what would make most sense for me.
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Post by shadrack on Oct 6, 2024 8:47:51 GMT
Arizona has a similar situation. Every statewide office is controlled by Democrats. Why would they shift right now after shifting left in 2020 and 2022? It just doesn’t add up.
I think you're assuming straight party voting, but have a look at the polls.
They show Trump with a small lead over Harris but they also show Ruben Gallego (the Dem candidate for Senate) with a huge (10-point) lead over ultra-Trumper Kari Lake.
That suggests a lot of Arizonans plan to vote Republican for Prez but Dem for Senate.
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Post by Boricanator on Oct 6, 2024 11:32:10 GMT
Arizona has a similar situation. Every statewide office is controlled by Democrats. Why would they shift right now after shifting left in 2020 and 2022? It just doesn’t add up.
I think you're assuming straight party voting, but have a look at the polls.
They show Trump with a small lead over Harris but they also show Ruben Gallego (the Dem candidate for Senate) with a huge (10-point) lead over ultra-Trumper Kari Lake.
That suggests a lot of Arizonans plan to vote Republican for Prez but Dem for Senate.
Which begs the question of who are these voters? Gallego and Trump are very far apart. Why would someone vote for Gallego and Trump? Especially having Lake, who is full MAGA.
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Post by DalekFred on Oct 6, 2024 11:38:21 GMT
Eat shit and die, motherfucker. Is it pleasurable, uncomfortable, or both when the establishment operate your mouth with their fingers jammed so far up your rectum?
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Post by OldSamVimes on Oct 6, 2024 11:41:18 GMT
I predict the Democrats will win any swing states that don't require voters to show identification.
Probably a safe prediction.
The only reason to oppose voter ID is - you want to cheat.
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Post by abbey1227 on Oct 6, 2024 12:24:39 GMT
They'll probably save a ton$ on latex gloves
2,000 Mules is fiction.
In one day, people suddenly started wearing gloves
THAT's coordination
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Post by Factchecker3Point0 on Oct 6, 2024 18:23:01 GMT
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Post by mr_self on Oct 6, 2024 18:51:26 GMT
Too close to call.
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Post by blizzmanb on Oct 6, 2024 19:09:03 GMT
Too close to call. Yes, but you and I still think, regardless of the stats, that Trumo is going to lose for sure brah. Right right!!!
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Post by mr_self on Oct 6, 2024 19:13:04 GMT
Too close to call. Yes, but you and I still think, regardless of the stats, that Trumo is going to lose for sure brah. Right right!!! I said Trumo won't be President again. Full stop.
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Post by blizzmanb on Oct 7, 2024 0:32:55 GMT
Yes, but you and I still think, regardless of the stats, that Trumo is going to lose for sure brah. Right right!!! I said Trumo won't be President again. Full stop. All right, we're on the same ultimate page then, although I only give Trumo a 9% chance of winning the election. I was getting wobbly during Biden's final month or so but things are back on track.
I know there's a bunch of old-fashioned posters still stuck in the 20th century who think their little pet issues will swing the result one way or the other, but really, you and I know we as a nation are well beyond that kind of nonsense, brah.
The "issues" can eat a dick brah.
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Post by theBROKEdontrump on Oct 7, 2024 0:39:23 GMT
I read the other day that you double the margin of error and if your candidate is not ahead by greater that number, it is a tie...
neither harris nor trump are outside the margin of error in any of the swing states
BUT
they are predicting a high voter turnout and that has ALWAYS benefitted the democrats
there are not enough old white racist people for it ot be a benefit for the gop
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Post by mr_self on Oct 7, 2024 1:08:11 GMT
I said Trumo won't be President again. Full stop. All right, we're on the same ultimate page then, although I only give Trumo a 9% chance of winning the election. I was getting wobbly during Biden's final month or so but things are back on track.
I know there's a bunch of old-fashioned posters still stuck in the 20th century who think their little pet issues will swing the result one way or the other, but really, you and I know we as a nation are well beyond that kind of nonsense, brah.
The "issues" can eat a dick brah.
I said Trumo won't be allowed to be president again. I never made a prediction about the election, brah. Trump may win the election but my sources tell me he won't be president. Think about it...
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Post by blizzmanb on Oct 7, 2024 1:15:08 GMT
All right, we're on the same ultimate page then, although I only give Trumo a 9% chance of winning the election. I was getting wobbly during Biden's final month or so but things are back on track.
I know there's a bunch of old-fashioned posters still stuck in the 20th century who think their little pet issues will swing the result one way or the other, but really, you and I know we as a nation are well beyond that kind of nonsense, brah.
The "issues" can eat a dick brah.
I said Trumo won't be allowed to be president again. I never made a prediction about the election, brah. Trump may win the election but my sources tell me he won't be president. Think about it... Well yeah I saw that distinction brah. I read every word, every day. A regular spider bot AI web crawler I.
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Post by averagejoe2021 on Oct 7, 2024 1:26:11 GMT
VERY difficult to say...a lot can/will happen with a month to go. But here is where I see it "now".
Trump will probably take NC and Arizona. Georgia?...Trump....but barely. Nevada is 50/50 now. Trump always outperformed Wisconsin polls by a few points so Id give Trump a slight edge there and PA. But Michigan is probably a slight Harris favorite despite losing some key endorsements there.
We'll see how much it changes over the next month.
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