AfD in Decline

THIS IS WHY THE TIME OF SUCCESS FOR THE RIGHT-WING EXTREMISTS FROM THE AFD IS OVER



AFD IN DECLINE

For years, democrats of all stripes stared in horror at the AfD's poll numbers. There was much debate and discussion about how to prevent the rise of a party whose core theme was racism from the very beginning and which was clearly becoming more and more a party of the far-right scene in bourgeois disguise. In the process, a lot was also done wrong. The AfD's agitating themes - and above all its lies, racism and Nazi relativizations - reliably became headlines, and ever new record values in polls caused hectic and worry. That's over. The AfD, now on the verge of being monitored by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution, has become virtually insignificant despite relatively unchanged poll numbers. And that is also reflected in polls. What happened? And - how can we help the trend?



PARLIAMENTARY ARM OF THE NEO-NAZI SCENE

It has long been clear that the AfD is the parliamentary arm of the far-right scene. The networks are clear, the "wing" has long been targeted by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution. With good reason. The AfD leadership has long since given up fighting them and has come to terms with them. Without the right-wing extremists, no more decisions are made (read more), Gauland himself inadvertently admitted that the right-wing extremists around Höcke are the strongest force in the AfD (read more) and Höcke is the "center of the party" (source).





DECEIVING "STRONGEST FORCE" HEADLINES AGAIN AND AGAIN

Especially in the East, where the AfD remains strong, every few months the public is surprised when it becomes the "strongest force" again because the CDU is weakening. Such reports have long since obscured the fact that the party has been stagnating unchanged for years. This has been the case for almost two years now, during which there have only been fluctuations within the margin of error. It no longer benefits from any other voter migration. No matter what it does. Because it continues to lie and agitate as before. Only now, no one notices anymore.



The fact that the AfD has not played a major role for a long time and is stagnating - and even losing a bit - is an important message. Especially in times of pandemics, which were a feast for fraudsters, conspiracy ideologues and fake news, one can wonder why the AfD could not gain anything on these core issues. And look at what we as democrats are doing right. Here we have already explained why jumping on Fake News around Corona did not achieve any success.



ALL 2021 ELECTIONS MEANT BIG LOSSES.

This is reflected not only in polls, but in all 2021 election results so far, and likely in the federal election as well. In March, the AfD lost 5.4 percentage points in the state election in Baden-Württemberg, losing over a third of its votes (source), and 4.3 percentage points, also over a third, in Rhineland-Palatinate (source), and 3.5 percentage points and 14% in Saxony-Anhalt in June (source). In the local elections in Lower Saxony (3.3 percentage points source) and Hesse (5 percentage points source), the share of the vote held by right-wing extremists has also almost halved.



In the east, where the AfD is stronger, the realized and projected losses are smaller in relation, but are within the same range. At the federal level, the AfD is also expected to incur losses and will not be able to maintain its 2017 result (source). How come?



THE AFD IS BY FAR THE MOST UNPOPULAR PARTY

A statement that the AfD was in crisis could already be observed in early 2020, shortly before Corona. "The AfD keeps falling" we already headlined last spring (read more). And some of those factors that led to it are still true.







But in times of Corona and the pandemic of lies of the "Querdenker:innen" (anti-vaxxers / Coviddeniers; tinfoilhats) one could have expected that the AfD, which became big with exactly such agitation and lies the years before, could fully exploit the trend. After all, Corona fakes were THE topic last year. It couldn't, though. The graph here above is over 1 year old. Nothing at all has changed in the AfD's percentages. This is due to one important factor: most Germans are aware of what an anti-democratic and dangerous party it is.



The AfD may get more votes than the LEFT and all the minor parties, but it is unchallenged in first place among the parties that people would definitely not vote for. For all democratic parties, two-thirds or more of the citizens could imagine voting for them, even if they don't do so. With the AfD, three fourths of Germans will never do so.



The AfD has simply made itself unelectable for most through ever more blatant radicalization and the late, but correct, partial observation by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution. It was a way of buying the absolute loyalty of its supporters, who slipped into an extreme right-wing filter bubble, completely separated from the rest of society. That secures the AfD its unchallenged 8-15 percentage points. For the time being (unfortunately!) it won't be less. But it won't get any more either. No matter what happens.



AFD NO LONGER PLAYS A POLITICAL ROLE

The AfD continues to be dangerous without being asked, especially in the East, where fascist Höcke and his right-wing extremist colleagues continue to saw at the foundations of democracy - especially because some parts of the CDU and FDP there show sympathy for their ideologies (read more) or could apparently vote for fascists - or want to be elected by them (source, source, source). But the AfD is also stagnating in states like Saxony (fortunately).



As defenders of democracy, we must understand why this is so - and try to maintain the appropriate things that are obviously being done right. Yes, part of the population is irretrievably lost to a radical ideology and party in the medium term. We can't reach them either, because they only consume their right-wing extremist "lying press" and deny everything that contradicts their world view out of reflex. What's needed here are dropout programs. They are in their filter bubble. But their propaganda and hatred won't come out of it for a while.



But the reverse is also true: The rest - the vast majority - of Germans see through the lies and agitation of the AfD. The serious media have also recognized that you don't have to address every nonsense from this corner. Because the party also has nothing meaningful to contribute. The democratic parties also do a lot of things right and, apart from rolling their eyes, don't have much to say about the AfD - with a few dangerous exceptions on the right-wing fringes of the CDU and FDP, which we absolutely have to keep an eye on. In Thuringia and with Kemmerich, the firewall has fortunately held.



TAKE NOTE & CONTINUE TO IGNORE AFD

So let's use this moment to take note. The AfD continues to fail, it continues to lose. And that's a good thing, we have to make sure it stays that way. And somehow live for now with about 10% votes that threaten our democracy. Ignoring their umpteenth lies also makes sense, as does leaving them out of discussions in the election campaign - which is taking place without any problems without the AfD. After all, it has nothing to contribute. When it comes to important issues such as the corona, the climate crisis, pensions or right-wing extremism, the AfD either has no solutions at all (pensions), denies the problem (corona, climate) - or is the problem (right-wing extremism).



The AfD just stands around disruptively in the way. In the Corona pandemic, even many lateral thinkers didn't want to have anything to do with them - at least outwardly. On their demos they were, together with the whole neo-Nazi scene, of course tolerated (read more).





Of course, we still need a solution on how to reach the hard, far-right core of the party and socialize it democratically again. How we reach people who are ideologically completely trapped in fanatical filter bubbles. But a reassuring interim conclusion is also that the problem is at least not getting worse in the party spectrum at the moment. The greatest danger comes from the CDU/CSU opening itself up to the AfD, making a shift to the right and opening the door to posts and legitimacy for right-wing extremists. The CDU leadership's silence on the right-winger Maaßen is worrying; the firewall to the right is crumbling there in an extreme way. Anyone who wants to see the AfD's trend continue to decline cannot ignore this disgrace for the CDU.