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Post by gwyn on May 14, 2023 9:16:57 GMT
Put this on a Bunsen burner and smoke it.
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Post by Olaf Plunket on May 14, 2023 11:22:25 GMT
To be exact that was me trying to show you that your argument is invalid because it does not consider population. It is merely to show the importance of including a number you ignored. What else you got from it is your own doing.
Notice how reasonable the estimate of the population is for 2019. I chose it to fit the other numbers which are almost exactly what the US Census Bureau reports. It is apparently the population estimate they used, but did not report. Year Population # Deaths % Deaths 2020 331499281 3390029 1.0226 2019 331495355 2854838 0.8612 1 / 6 1.0226 / 0.8612 1.0226 – 0.8612 0.16666666 1.1874129 ("up 18.75%") 0.1614 (less than one-sixth of one percent)
You never got one-sixth of one percent because you used the death count seen in column 3 instead of the death rate seen in column 4. No pal, that was you dancing around your own population argument that I was repeating back to you, because you know that your suggestion that there was a freak increase in population from 2019-2020, is false. So to recap: An 18.75% increase in total deaths in 2020 is correct and NOT due to a freak increase in population causing that. Now you're telling me that this huge increase in number of deaths in 2020 is irrelevant because we should instead just look at that death total as a tiny percentage of the total number of living people in the U.S. Is that it? Do I seriously need to explain how goddamn stupid this is? Whether my suggestion that there was a "freak increase" in population is true or false is not relevant here because I did use it to obtain the one-sixth of one percent figure. I only used it to show you how important it is to consider population. I used the same increase in population used by the US Census Bureau to show you that the death rate increased by one-sixth of one percent. I am certain you do not understand how any of this works. The estimate of the population in 2019 used by the Census Bureau is high, yes, but that lowers the death rate for 2019 and increases the apparent change in the death rate going into 2020, not decreases it. 331499281 - 331495355 = 3926. That is a low change in population. It means a lower death rate for 2019, which as I said increases the difference going into 2020. Making the death counts more similar makes the death rate more different. One estimate of the population in 2019 I explained, the one from a constant percentage increase each year yields a population in 2019 of 329150410 which is smaller than the Census Bureau estimate by 2344945, not larger. It appears more realistic to me, but since I did not use it, you cannot complain. It would indeed raise the death rate in 2019, but that would decrease the change going into 2020. Not fair? Since I did not use it, it doesn't matter how fair it is. So why are you accusing me of using an absurdly high population estimate for 2019 to deceive people when you are the one doing that?
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Post by OldSamVimes on May 14, 2023 11:24:52 GMT
If there is something that is dangerous, its blind faith in God/religion. Get rid of religions and Gods and people will make their own. Blind faith in materialism is probably as dangerous as blind faith in any Gods.
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Post by OldSamVimes on May 14, 2023 11:29:01 GMT
Me? You forced people to crowd together early on. You closed small businesses, and then forced everyone to crowd together in chain stores. You also had curfews in place so that people couldn't be in these stores sporadically throughout the day, but instead had to all be there at the same time. How is that conducive to 'flattening the curve'? In hindsight, the fact we closed down small businesses and funneled the population through 'Big Box' stores in an effort to prevent a spread of infection should have rung bullshit alarm bells in more of the population. It's absolute idiocy to imagine shutting down small businesses was in any way warranted. The people responsible for those stupid decisions should face some consequences. People lost their jobs and livelihoods for no logical reason. Media whores don't give a shit.
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Post by Olaf Plunket on May 14, 2023 11:56:50 GMT
I suspect your confusion is in having to accept that both parties are messed up bad. Both parties are messed up bad, believe me. It's been bad religion fighting bad science for decades now. Correcting bad religion requires good religion and correcting bad science requires good science. That is why we haven't been getting anywhere, neither bad religion nor bad science is going to correct anything. I suspect you won't be able to understand that either though. It's the bad religion that is saying the science is bad because science means the bad religionists can no longer claim they, and only they, have the truth as they have for thousands of years. No one else is complaining about it. One reason I do not like to discuss religion with you is that you tend to assume all religious people are similar and have similar flaws.
The truth is that they are very different. In fact some "Christians" believe opposite things and yet they all call themselves Christians.
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Post by Dracula on May 14, 2023 22:48:41 GMT
No pal, that was you dancing around your own population argument that I was repeating back to you, because you know that your suggestion that there was a freak increase in population from 2019-2020, is false. So to recap: An 18.75% increase in total deaths in 2020 is correct and NOT due to a freak increase in population causing that. Now you're telling me that this huge increase in number of deaths in 2020 is irrelevant because we should instead just look at that death total as a tiny percentage of the total number of living people in the U.S. Is that it? Do I seriously need to explain how goddamn stupid this is? Whether my suggestion that there was a "freak increase" in population is true or false is not relevant here because I did use it to obtain the one-sixth of one percent figure. I only used it to show you how important it is to consider population. I used the same increase in population used by the US Census Bureau to show you that the death rate increased by one-sixth of one percent. I am certain you do not understand how any of this works. The estimate of the population in 2019 used by the Census Bureau is high, yes, but that lowers the death rate for 2019 and increases the apparent change in the death rate going into 2020, not decreases it. 331499281 - 331495355 = 3926. That is a low change in population. It means a lower death rate for 2019, which as I said increases the difference going into 2020. Making the death counts more similar makes the death rate more different. One estimate of the population in 2019 I explained, the one from a constant percentage increase each year yields a population in 2019 of 329150410 which is smaller than the Census Bureau estimate by 2344945, not larger. It appears more realistic to me, but since I did not use it, you cannot complain. It would indeed raise the death rate in 2019, but that would decrease the change going into 2020. Not fair? Since I did not use it, it doesn't matter how fair it is. So why are you accusing me of using an absurdly high population estimate for 2019 to deceive people when you are the one doing that? I’d call your posts trolling but it sounds more like stupidity driven by pretentiousness. The following is long only because I’m addressing all of your stupidity here, not because it really needs to be this long for something this simple and self-explanatory: Again, your "one-sixth of one percent" is just you saying the same number of deaths as a tiny percentage of the huge U.S. population, which of course is pointless and stupid. In the U.S., 2,854,838 people died in 2019 and 3,390,029 people died in 2020 - an 18.75% increase in deaths and biggest jump in 100 years. What you’re saying is, let's express everything as a rate of X% of ~330 million so that it’s all just a tiny, meaningless fraction of a percent. Instead of 2,854,838 deaths in 2019, let’s just call that 0.87% of 328 million, and instead of 3,390,029 deaths in 2020, let’s just call that 1.02% of 331 million. Voila! It’s only a 0.15% RATE difference! Forget about that 18.75% increase in deaths for 2020 because that’s just “misleading” and we need to instead downplay that by showing what a tiny percentage it is of the entire U.S. population, is what you’re saying, and the irony here is laughable of course. Following that logic, no jump in deaths in any year matters or indicates anything at all because that number will always be just a tiny percentage of the entire U.S. population. Earlier though, you suggested that this 18.75% increase in deaths may have been due to a similar percentage increase in death. But now you’re conceding that the U.S. population for 2019-2020 remained roughly the same at approximately 330 million, and what you’re now saying is that even a tiny, near 0% fluctuation in the population estimate is also the cause for the huge 18.75% jump in deaths in 2020.
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Post by Olaf Plunket on May 14, 2023 23:39:31 GMT
Whether my suggestion that there was a "freak increase" in population is true or false is not relevant here because I did use it to obtain the one-sixth of one percent figure. I only used it to show you how important it is to consider population. I used the same increase in population used by the US Census Bureau to show you that the death rate increased by one-sixth of one percent. I am certain you do not understand how any of this works. The estimate of the population in 2019 used by the Census Bureau is high, yes, but that lowers the death rate for 2019 and increases the apparent change in the death rate going into 2020, not decreases it. 331499281 - 331495355 = 3926. That is a low change in population. It means a lower death rate for 2019, which as I said increases the difference going into 2020. Making the death counts more similar makes the death rate more different. One estimate of the population in 2019 I explained, the one from a constant percentage increase each year yields a population in 2019 of 329150410 which is smaller than the Census Bureau estimate by 2344945, not larger. It appears more realistic to me, but since I did not use it, you cannot complain. It would indeed raise the death rate in 2019, but that would decrease the change going into 2020. Not fair? Since I did not use it, it doesn't matter how fair it is. So why are you accusing me of using an absurdly high population estimate for 2019 to deceive people when you are the one doing that? I’d call your posts trolling but it sounds more like stupidity driven by pretentiousness. The following is long only because I’m addressing all of your stupidity here, not because it really needs to be this long for something this simple and self-explanatory: Again, your "one-sixth of one percent" is just you saying the same number of deaths as a tiny percentage of the huge U.S. population, which of course is pointless and stupid. In the U.S., 2,854,838 people died in 2019 and 3,390,029 people died in 2020 - an 18.75% increase in deaths and biggest jump in 100 years. What you’re saying is, let's express everything as a rate of X% of ~330 million so that it’s all just a tiny, meaningless fraction of a percent. Instead of 2,854,838 deaths in 2019, let’s just call that 0.87% of 328 million, and instead of 3,390,029 deaths in 2020, let’s just call that 1.02% of 331 million. Voila! It’s only a 0.15% RATE difference! Forget about that 18.75% increase in deaths for 2020 because that’s just “misleading” and we need to instead downplay that by showing what a tiny percentage it is of the entire U.S. population, is what you’re saying, and the irony here is laughable of course. Following that logic, no jump in deaths in any year matters or indicates anything at all because that number will always be just a tiny percentage of the entire U.S. population. Earlier though, you suggested that this 18.75% increase in deaths may have been due to a similar percentage increase in death. But now you’re conceding that the U.S. population for 2019-2020 remained roughly the same at approximately 330 million, and what you’re now saying is that even a tiny, near 0% fluctuation in the population estimate is also the cause for the huge 18.75% jump in deaths in 2020. Great, it appears you are finally catching on. Yes, your numbers absolutely fail to alarm when considered in the context of history and the large population of the country. That's it, congratulations. It sure took you long enough, but you made it. Now about that economic shutdown, do I have to warn you not to pull a stunt like that again? I think enough people learned a lesson not to do that. You remember when people with bad hearts got a runny nose and died, and you blamed their death on covid instead of the bad heart? What about the people who had bad hearts or other serious medical conditions who died trying to cope with the lock down? Were those deaths "caused" by the lock down? Is fair for you not also fair for me? Now who is talking about 'tiny" percentages?
And do I have to warn you not to use numbers out of context again? Even stupid people these days know you are not supposed to do that.
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Post by Harry Skywalker on May 15, 2023 2:03:12 GMT
I suspect your confusion is in having to accept that both parties are messed up bad. Both parties are messed up bad, believe me. It's been bad religion fighting bad science for decades now. Correcting bad religion requires good religion and correcting bad science requires good science. That is why we haven't been getting anywhere, neither bad religion nor bad science is going to correct anything. I suspect you won't be able to understand that either though. Comparing Science to Religion is pure lunacy. You are the one who still hasn't understood this.
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Post by Dracula on May 15, 2023 6:27:06 GMT
I’d call your posts trolling but it sounds more like stupidity driven by pretentiousness. The following is long only because I’m addressing all of your stupidity here, not because it really needs to be this long for something this simple and self-explanatory: Again, your "one-sixth of one percent" is just you saying the same number of deaths as a tiny percentage of the huge U.S. population, which of course is pointless and stupid. In the U.S., 2,854,838 people died in 2019 and 3,390,029 people died in 2020 - an 18.75% increase in deaths and biggest jump in 100 years. What you’re saying is, let's express everything as a rate of X% of ~330 million so that it’s all just a tiny, meaningless fraction of a percent. Instead of 2,854,838 deaths in 2019, let’s just call that 0.87% of 328 million, and instead of 3,390,029 deaths in 2020, let’s just call that 1.02% of 331 million. Voila! It’s only a 0.15% RATE difference! Forget about that 18.75% increase in deaths for 2020 because that’s just “misleading” and we need to instead downplay that by showing what a tiny percentage it is of the entire U.S. population, is what you’re saying, and the irony here is laughable of course. Following that logic, no jump in deaths in any year matters or indicates anything at all because that number will always be just a tiny percentage of the entire U.S. population. Earlier though, you suggested that this 18.75% increase in deaths may have been due to a similar percentage increase in death. But now you’re conceding that the U.S. population for 2019-2020 remained roughly the same at approximately 330 million, and what you’re now saying is that even a tiny, near 0% fluctuation in the population estimate is also the cause for the huge 18.75% jump in deaths in 2020. Great, it appears you are finally catching on. Yes, your numbers absolutely fail to alarm when considered in the context of history and the large population of the country. That's it, congratulations. It sure took you long enough, but you made it. Now about that economic shutdown, do I have to warn you not to pull a stunt like that again? I think enough people learned a lesson not to do that. You remember when people with bad hearts got a runny nose and died, and you blamed their death on covid instead of the bad heart? What about the people who had bad hearts or other serious medical conditions who died trying to cope with the lock down? Were those deaths "caused" by the lock down? Is fair for you not also fair for me? Now who is talking about 'tiny" percentages?
And do I have to warn you not to use numbers out of context again? Even stupid people these days know you are not supposed to do that. You mean, the absurdity of your 'argument' has been exposed from the get-go, so you’d like to spew more snarky remarks and double down on your nonsense in your lame attempt at saving face. From my previous post, telling you the same thing: "Now you're telling me that this huge increase in number of deaths in 2020 is irrelevant because we should instead just look at that death total as a tiny percentage of the total number of living people in the U.S.”So in summary, you understand that total deaths in 2020 was in fact the biggest jump in deaths in 100 years, an 18.75% jump from the previous year, but you're saying this means absolutely nothing because the U.S. population is so big (what you’re calling “context”), and this load of crap is your “argument.” Now you're moving the goalposts to more of the regurgitated laundry list of delusions, about heart attacks from Covid precautions and lockdowns, non-Covid deaths counted as Covid deaths, and anything at all but Covid itself being the cause of more deaths. Like I said before, cool story.
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Post by merh on May 15, 2023 7:19:22 GMT
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