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Post by notoriousnobbi on Feb 21, 2024 15:55:27 GMT
Half a year ago I stumbled upon a German article that goes through the details of Western dependencies on Russia besides of fossil energy. I did put some work into the translation but wasn't ready to post it yet. But thankfully I found this article that says the same but with even more details. Can the EU and US end their dependence on Russia’s nuclear energy industry? energypost.eu/can-the-eu-and-us-end-its-dependence-on-russias-nuclear-energy-industry/Warning! It's not only a long read ( mowlick ) it may even get your head explode as there are a lot of facts rarely or never being discussed here. |
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Post by notoriousnobbi on Feb 21, 2024 16:21:21 GMT
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Post by Winter_King on Feb 21, 2024 16:27:12 GMT
I'm not sure. If the EU does it, it will probably be through some dumbass plan where we buy still Russian energy but at a higher cost because we're buying to through third parties like India.
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Post by notoriousnobbi on Feb 21, 2024 16:53:11 GMT
I'm not sure. If the EU does it, it will probably be through some dumbass plan where we buy still Russian energy but at a higher cost because we're buying to through third parties like India. Regarding India - it is now a superpower that we have to get accustomed to anyways. They won't let themselves be pushed around by us. And if they choose Russia as a partner in some sectors as they are the I in BRICS they give a rat's ass whether we regard this as morally wrong. Figuring Out Relationship Goals:
The EU and Its Partners securityconference.org/msc-2024/agenda/event/figuring-out-relationship-goals-the-eu-and-its-partners/And don't assume anytime we EU members would be better off solo under these shifting geopolitics powers. |
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Post by Winter_King on Feb 21, 2024 17:03:31 GMT
I'm not sure. If the EU does it, it will probably be through some dumbass plan where we buy still Russian energy but at a higher cost because we're buying to through third parties like India. Regarding India - it is now a superpower that we have to get accustomed to anyways. They won't let themselves be pushed around by us. And if they choose Russia as a partner in some sectors as they are the I in BRICS they give a rat's ass whether we regard this as morally wrong. Figuring Out Relationship Goals:
The EU and Its Partners securityconference.org/msc-2024/agenda/event/figuring-out-relationship-goals-the-eu-and-its-partners/And don't assume anytime we EU members would be better off solo under these shifting geopolitics powers. I don't think EU members would be better solo. I just think the EU strategy to deal with the current situation in Ukraine and Russia isn't working and it's unlikely to work. But I keep seeing them doubling down. I don't know if the EU leadership actually believes the fantasies that Ukraine is going to achieve total victory over Russia or it's something insidious where they know it's not going to happen but they are doing because doing the opposite would mean angering our transatlantic partner or some other shady goal. I'm hoping it's the latter because if it's the former then the EU leadership should resign out of stupidity. |
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Post by Carl LaFong on Feb 21, 2024 17:10:12 GMT
I'm not sure. If the EU does it, it will probably be through some dumbass plan where we buy still Russian energy but at a higher cost because we're buying to through third parties like India. Regarding India - it is now a superpower that we have to get accustomed to anyways. They won't let themselves be pushed around by us. And if they choose Russia as a partner in some sectors as they are the I in BRICS they give a rat's ass whether we regard this as morally wrong. Figuring Out Relationship Goals:
The EU and Its Partners securityconference.org/msc-2024/agenda/event/figuring-out-relationship-goals-the-eu-and-its-partners/And don't assume anytime we EU members would be better off solo under these shifting geopolitics powers. Modi is already having his agents murder Sikh separatists in Western countries. He’s a malignancy we’ll need to stand up to sooner rather than later. |
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Post by Nogbad on Feb 21, 2024 17:27:22 GMT
Regarding India - it is now a superpower that we have to get accustomed to anyways. They won't let themselves be pushed around by us. And if they choose Russia as a partner in some sectors as they are the I in BRICS they give a rat's ass whether we regard this as morally wrong. Figuring Out Relationship Goals:
The EU and Its Partners securityconference.org/msc-2024/agenda/event/figuring-out-relationship-goals-the-eu-and-its-partners/And don't assume anytime we EU members would be better off solo under these shifting geopolitics powers. Modi is already having his agents murder Sikh separatists in Western countries. He’s a malignancy we’ll need to stand up to sooner rather than later. India = Russia, sadly. I went there in the 90s, but sure as hell won't be going back. |
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Post by notoriousnobbi on Feb 21, 2024 17:43:51 GMT
I don't think EU members would be better solo. I just think the EU strategy to deal with the current situation in Ukraine and Russia isn't working and it's unlikely to work. But I keep seeing them doubling down. I don't know if the EU leadership actually believes the fantasies that Ukraine is going to achieve total victory over Russia or it's something insidious where they know it's not going to happen but they are doing because doing the opposite would mean angering our transatlantic partner or some other shady goal. I'm hoping it's the latter because if it's the former then the EU leadership should resign out of stupidity. I guess what the term "victory over Russia" means will be shifted over time. There is no such thing as "total victory over Russia" anyways. I also think that the EU's strategy is not in complete alignment with the "transatlantic partner" as this partner will probably lose reliability over time - even if Trump doesn't get elected. Personally I don't see that Ukraine should try to get the Crimea back. But what I think they should do and what they are ready to do are two different things. One thing though is clear to me though: we cannot let happen Russia taking the rest of Ukraine! (And whether we let Russia keep Donbass and Co. is another question). Because of 3 reasons #1 the moral one If Russia takes over the whole of Ukraine the Ukrainian culture will be destroyed - completely! Russia sees Ukraine as Russians on a wrong trip that have to be realigned with mother Russia - by force! #2 The refugee pressure If Russia takes over the whole of Ukraine there are estimates that more than 10,000,000 Ukrainians will flee to the West. The refugee crisis of 2015 will be small compared to that - and yes, that will be costly. # 3 The geostrategic reason If Russia takes over the complete Ukrainian coast of the Black Sea and manages to get a land bridge to Transnistria we will have the situation that Russia will be able to blackmail the rest of the world (and especially Africa) with hunger. And it will be even worse if Russia takes over the complete Ukraine. |
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Post by Winter_King on Feb 22, 2024 9:08:12 GMT
I don't think EU members would be better solo. I just think the EU strategy to deal with the current situation in Ukraine and Russia isn't working and it's unlikely to work. But I keep seeing them doubling down. I don't know if the EU leadership actually believes the fantasies that Ukraine is going to achieve total victory over Russia or it's something insidious where they know it's not going to happen but they are doing because doing the opposite would mean angering our transatlantic partner or some other shady goal. I'm hoping it's the latter because if it's the former then the EU leadership should resign out of stupidity. I guess what the term "victory over Russia" means will be shifted over time. There is no such thing as "total victory over Russia" anyways. I also think that the EU's strategy is not in complete alignment with the "transatlantic partner" as this partner will probably lose reliability over time - even if Trump doesn't get elected. Personally I don't see that Ukraine should try to get the Crimea back. But what I think they should do and what they are ready to do are two different things. One thing though is clear to me though: we cannot let happen Russia taking the rest of Ukraine! (And whether we let Russia keep Donbass and Co. is another question). Because of 3 reasons #1 the moral one If Russia takes over the whole of Ukraine the Ukrainian culture will be destroyed - completely! Russia sees Ukraine as Russians on a wrong trip that have to be realigned with mother Russia - by force! #2 The refugee pressure If Russia takes over the whole of Ukraine there are estimates that more than 10,000,000 Ukrainians will flee to the West. The refugee crisis of 2015 will be small compared to that - and yes, that will be costly. # 3 The geostrategic reason If Russia takes over the complete Ukrainian coast of the Black Sea and manages to get a land bridge to Transnistria we will have the situation that Russia will be able to blackmail the rest of the world (and especially Africa) with hunger. And it will be even worse if Russia takes over the complete Ukraine. 1. and 2. There is no indication that Russia is trying to conquer all of Ukraine. Putin himself admitted he wants the eastern regions of Ukraine with Crimea already taken in 2014. Sure, he maybe be lying but the invasion force he used wasn't enough to pull that off, not to mention that he would have to mobilize even more to keep the entire country occupied and pacified. I don't think Ukraine can go back to 1991 borders which several of EU leaders have suggested that this is the requirement from to enter negotiations. Thus if that's not possible, a negotiated settlement is the only way of ending the war in Ukraine. I don't any EU leaders pushing for this solution. |
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Post by notoriousnobbi on Feb 22, 2024 12:17:49 GMT
I don't see/expect any EU leaders pushing for this solution. There are lot of people at the Munich Security Conference. (I've linked to an official participants list). A big part of that event are not the official meetings but the negotiations behind the curtains. And I guess that exactly what is achieveable and what is not regarding Ukraine is what's heavily discussed there. But it cannot be discussed openly (or with Orban...) bc that would give Russia strategic hints. Where I differ with you is Russia's long term plan. Yes, I think that Russia does want to take the whole of Ukraine. Why do they attack Kiew, if they only want to take Eastern Ukraine? Why do they occupy a nuclear plant? |
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Post by Winter_King on Feb 22, 2024 12:25:45 GMT
I don't see/expect any EU leaders pushing for this solution. There are lot of people at the Munich Security Conference. (I've linked to an official participants list). A big part of that event are not the official meetings but the negotiations behind the curtains. And I guess that exactly what is achieveable and what is not regarding Ukraine is what's heavily discussed there. But it cannot be discussed openly (or with Orban...) bc that would give Russia strategic hints. Where I differ with you is Russia's long term plan. Yes, I think that Russia does want to take the whole of Ukraine. Why do they attack Kiew, if they only want to take Eastern Ukraine? Why do they occupy a nuclear plant? To force them into a deal. Initial invasion force was 190k. Not enough to take the entire Ukraine. Example: US invaded Iraq with half a million men and there was never a plan to annex the country. Other example is the German invasion of Poland actually designed to annex it to Germany and Germany had more than 2 million men and this was with the knowledge that the Soviet Union was going to invade the other half. Even the numbers that Russia has currently in Ukraine, which are substantially higher than their initial force, are not enough. |
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Post by notoriousnobbi on Feb 22, 2024 22:01:29 GMT
Back to Energy dependencies, here an interesting analysis: Europe’s gas consumption falls to 10-year low as peak LNG demand nears ieefa.org/articles/europes-gas-consumption-falls-10-year-low-peak-lng-demand-nears (It was expected that the sabotage of North Stream 2 would have been compensated elsewhere.) Look, we do have something in common And now the unpleasant part let's face it: do we wanna have Trump a leverage? |
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