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Post by hugsfromlv426 on Apr 30, 2024 11:58:58 GMT
So it was just coincidental that a gradually increasing number of deaths suddenly had an unprecedented increase in the same year as Covid, and then began to decrease again after the worst of Covid was over, but Covid didn't cause it? 2010 2,468,435 - 1.28% increase over prior year 2011 2,515,458 - 1.90% increase over prior year 2012 2,543,279 - 1.11% increase over prior year 2013 2,596,993 - 2.11% increase over prior year 2014 2,626,418 - 1.13% increase over prior year 2015 2,712,630 - 3.28% increase over prior year 2016 2,744,248 - 1.17% increase over prior year 2017 2,813,503 - 2.52% increase over prior year 2018 2,839,205 - 0.91% increase over prior year 2019 2,854,838 - 0.55% increase over prior year 2020 3,383,729 - 18.53% increase over prior year2021 3,464,231 - 2.38% increase over prior year 2022 3,273,705 - 5.50% decrease over prior year First of all an increase of 18.53 percent does not take into account the change in the population. If the population increased by 19 percent, that would actually be a decrease in the death rate that year. Granted though an increase of 19 percent in the population is highly unrealistic and the death rate very likely did go up, probably more than 15 percent. The population during years with no census is not known and can only be roughly estimated. Even 15 percent however is very misleading. Only about 1.0226 percent of people died of anything in 2020, which should seem low for a pandemic. Using a census bureau estimate of the population in 2019 the death rate in 2019 was 0.8593 percent. Notice that if you subtract 0.8593 from 1.0226 you get 0.163 percent or about 1/6 of 1 percent. That is how much deaths increased in 2020 over 2019, 1/6 of 1 percent. Does it seem like such a big number now? However if you divide 1.0226 by 0.8593 you get 1. 19003840335157, and there is your 19 percent increase you saw in the news. That however is ridiculous for a number barely above 1 percent. The thing to take from this is that very small percentages can be expected to fluctuate considerably. For example if a specific kind of candy is about 1 percent of sales in a grocery store and the next year sales are 2 percent, you might say sales increased 100 percent by some strange math, but of course it was only 1 percent. You do have a point that the number of deaths does appear rather stable from 2010 to 2019. Since we do not know how the population changed in those years the death rate could be much more sporadic, like the sales of candy about 1 percent. You think the population increased by 19% that year? Let's see some stats to back up that hypothesis.
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Post by Olaf Plunket on Apr 30, 2024 12:02:15 GMT
when data becomes so intensely politicized as it did, the possibility someone tampers with it increases. That's precisely why the more skeptical among us tend not to buy into everything the Govt says........especially when it comes from Govt funded sources. People might be tired of me repeating this but my opinion on the integrity of the 2020 elections is that voter fraud was very low and perhaps comparable to any other year. If however there was more fraud than usual I believe it is Trump's own fault because he was that bad a president. Either way then, as far as I'm concerned, Trump was a bad president. I understand that humans make mistakes without intention and sometimes deliberately alter data. All in all though I think the numbers are as close as humanly possible.
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Post by abbey1227 on Apr 30, 2024 12:02:30 GMT
No, the number of deaths was climbing for years. The rate has yet to be determined until it is compared with the population. And the number of deaths did drop, just not as much as it had increased. Possibly because half the country refused to get the vaccine.
There's the funny part of this all. And like climate change, it's an argument that will just get spun so that they're never wrong.
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Post by abbey1227 on Apr 30, 2024 12:05:34 GMT
That's precisely why the more skeptical among us tend not to buy into everything the Govt says........especially when it comes from Govt funded sources. People might be tired of me repeating this but my opinion on the integrity of the 2020 elections is that voter fraud was very low and perhaps comparable to any other year. If however there was more fraud than usual I believe it is Trump's own fault because he was that bad a president. Either way then, as far as I'm concerned, Trump was a bad president. I understand that humans make mistakes without intention and sometimes deliberately alter data. All in all though I think the numbers are as close as humanly possible.
Voter fraud by year. very low?
Dig into the rates of ballot rejection, sometime. 2020 was the best year for voters following the guidelines ever, apparently.
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Post by Olaf Plunket on Apr 30, 2024 12:07:05 GMT
First of all an increase of 18.53 percent does not take into account the change in the population. If the population increased by 19 percent, that would actually be a decrease in the death rate that year. Granted though an increase of 19 percent in the population is highly unrealistic and the death rate very likely did go up, probably more than 15 percent. The population during years with no census is not known and can only be roughly estimated. Even 15 percent however is very misleading. Only about 1.0226 percent of people died of anything in 2020, which should seem low for a pandemic. Using a census bureau estimate of the population in 2019 the death rate in 2019 was 0.8593 percent. Notice that if you subtract 0.8593 from 1.0226 you get 0.163 percent or about 1/6 of 1 percent. That is how much deaths increased in 2020 over 2019, 1/6 of 1 percent. Does it seem like such a big number now? However if you divide 1.0226 by 0.8593 you get 1. 19003840335157, and there is your 19 percent increase you saw in the news. That however is ridiculous for a number barely above 1 percent. The thing to take from this is that very small percentages can be expected to fluctuate considerably. For example if a specific kind of candy is about 1 percent of sales in a grocery store and the next year sales are 2 percent, you might say sales increased 100 percent by some strange math, but of course it was only 1 percent. You do have a point that the number of deaths does appear rather stable from 2010 to 2019. Since we do not know how the population changed in those years the death rate could be much more sporadic, like the sales of candy about 1 percent. You think the population increased by 19% that year? Let's see some stats to back up that hypothesis.
That is most unfair of you since I did say that a 19 percent increase in the population was "highly unrealistic," my exact words.
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Post by hugsfromlv426 on Apr 30, 2024 12:09:23 GMT
You think the population increased by 19% that year? Let's see some stats to back up that hypothesis.
That is most unfair of you since I did say that a 19 percent increase in the population was "highly unrealistic," my exact words.
So why bring it up if it is extremely unlikely?
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Post by abbey1227 on Apr 30, 2024 12:09:56 GMT
You think the population increased by 19% that year? Let's see some stats to back up that hypothesis.
Yeah, even with counting every Illegal in the country........ 19% would be a massive increase.
Supposedly it's been 10 Million allowed into the US the last few years. That'd be just about a 3% increase
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Post by hugsfromlv426 on Apr 30, 2024 12:12:22 GMT
You think the population increased by 19% that year? Let's see some stats to back up that hypothesis.
Yeah, even with counting every Illegal in the country........ 19% would be a massive increase.
Supposedly it's been 10 Million allowed into the US the last few years. That'd be just about a 3% increase
Or 1% per year. And I suspect that few of the immigrants are old people who are expected to die in the next year.
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Post by abbey1227 on Apr 30, 2024 12:17:18 GMT
Yeah, even with counting every Illegal in the country........ 19% would be a massive increase.
Supposedly it's been 10 Million allowed into the US the last few years. That'd be just about a 3% increase
Or 1% per year. And I suspect that few of the immigrants are old people who are expected to die in the next year.
How many were vaccinated, though?
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Post by hugsfromlv426 on Apr 30, 2024 12:18:42 GMT
Or 1% per year. And I suspect that few of the immigrants are old people who are expected to die in the next year.
How many were vaccinated, though? Yeah, you have a point there.
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Post by abbey1227 on Apr 30, 2024 12:20:36 GMT
How many were vaccinated, though? Yeah, you have a point there.
pointy like a hypodermic
meh, even a broken clock..........etc etc etc
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Post by Olaf Plunket on Apr 30, 2024 12:50:34 GMT
That is most unfair of you since I did say that a 19 percent increase in the population was "highly unrealistic," my exact words.
So why bring it up if it is extremely unlikely? To show what is possible, however remotely, and to remind people to be wary of the ways data is presented. It can be a lot about presentation and spin.
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