Post by drystyx on Apr 29, 2024 19:01:02 GMT
I don't want to see any threads about anything else on this board this entire week, or ELSE!]]
So far, there are no defections in the field of 20, but that won't last long. Things happen, and a Derby horse has to be close to 100% to contend.
And for the commies who don't know that this is KENTUCKY DERBY WEEK!!!!!!!, ignorance of the biggest sports event of the year is no excuse for being ignorant, nor for posting anything about stupid non sports stuff like stupid Texas hold em. All such posts will be exiled to Dorkville for the dorks.
All the posts about minor insignificant sports like some of the insignificant unknown things we see here, those will be Anathema.
Right now, the experts are trying to lead people astray. There are a lot of you tube shows with "experts", and most of the "experts" are very knowledgeable, but they are trying to lead you astray with two or three favorites, and their claims that there are three to five top horses this year.
Know this much. The morning line favorite is FIERCENESS, the two year old champ who won the big two year old race in the Breeder's Cup. If he wins, as sometimes the two year old champ does, it means a two year old won the Kentucky Derby of three year old colts, which means we have a horrible group of colts who don't mature beyond the age of two. The two year old champ is a colt who already grew to maturity at an early age, much like the boy who was six foot two in the sixth grade, but who doesn't grow another inch and even shrinks to be shorter than you are at the 40th high school reunion.
Fierceness may win, because sometimes we do get a bad crop of three year old colts for the Derby, and late bloomers haven't bloomed yet. But he doesn't look good. His dosage is too high to be a "favorite", and his speed figures are exaggerated.
About speed figures. The ones on the right in the form are actual scientific speed ratings based on the track records for the race distance. There is a hyphen and another number next to that number, which is the "track variance" or "track differential" as handicappers call it, which is the difference for the winning times that day subtracted from the track records for those distances, which shows how hard and fast the track was.
Therefore, you get somewhat of an idea by adding the two numbers together, although that doesn't work, because slow times are usually for deeper tracks, and some horses fare better on "fast", and some on "slow" tracks. You will note that when the second number is a low number like "07", which means the track was lightning fast that day, that horses who come from the back don't do as well as when the second number is a high number like "33".
Also, some of the races are on turf, which will present a different surface, and some days there are only races that are common distances (6 furlongs, i mile, 1 1/16 mile) which have faster times for the record, because they have been raced fifty times more often than seldom run distances (7 1/2 furlongs, 1 7/16 miles). And there are other variables, such as days (mostly Saturdays) which have a lot of graded stakes races which are expected to be closer to record times.
Then, there are the changes in tracks from year to year. Tampa Bay, for instance, was noted as a track with slower times as far back as the 80s and 90s, because of slower tracks, and that was before Beyer speed ratings was introduced. This meant that a G2 winner at six furlongs might win at 1:12 at Tampa Bay, but would win with a 1:09 at Churchill. It was the long shot track into the 00s. However, during the 2010s it lost its appeal and got lightning fast times, which reversed the winning times. This year, the times at Tampa look slower, but is it because the horses are slower, or because the track is slower?
That's where "track regulars" come in. The people who watch and bet every race every day at every track. No one can afford to do this, of course, so the sports writers make a game of it with play money to keep watch.
That brings us to the speed figures that the "experts" now all go by. The BEYER speed figure, which appears to the left in the form. This is not nearly as scientific, and involves some subjectivity, although the experts who do the BEYER do try hard to make it reasonable, taking all the variables into account.
However, there are sometimes when the "experts" either make a mistake, or deliberately mislead you. I think they are deliberately misleading you this year, because there are some tracks that are lightning fast one year and slow the next year.
Now, the sports writers will keep track of nearly every race every day, but they can't possibly do every track, so they have to limit it to about 20 U.S. tracks, and the sports writers also have to keep up with UK, Ireland, France, Brazil, UAE, and Japan.
So there is no way to do this without making miscalculations.
Some tracks are getting underrated and some are overrated this year, as far as the speed on their tracks.
Now, when it comes to this year, the sports writers already confessed that almost every 3 year old graded stakes race has been won by one of the three favorites of the race, and long prices have done little. When they tell you that this means the races ran true to form, they are lying, although some of them may really be delusional. The odds on a horse have absolutely nothing to do with "form". They are determined by how much money is bet on each horse, which is why the odds change. When someone says he always bets on the second choice, you know he is a moron, because you have no idea who the second choice is in a race until after the race goes off, and even if someone bets on the second choice at the last minute, he's betting down his own odds if he bets more than five dollars on a normal day.
So, what it means is that there have been no surprises this year. No one has "matured", although if you look, you will see some have matured if you know what you're looking for.
Another important item about these colts is that almost all of them have been first or second in almost all of their races all year long.
That means that this year, the Kentucky Derby isn't a "class determined" race, but instead a "class determiner" race, which is what it traditionally was before all those low prices started spoiling the chalk bettors sometime in the 2010s.
Which means anyone can jump up. If you win with a low price horse, you're just downright lucky.
Still, there are some who appear to be "tosses", but it's never safe to "toss". It's just less dangerous.
So, with that said, here are the present post positions (which you probably know means that when one of these scratches, the remainder of those outside move one space inside. I think I said that well enough.)
PROGRAM NUMBER (THIS DOESN'T CHANGE)-PROBABLE ODDS-TRAINER-COMMENTS-DOSAGE
1. DORNOCH 60-1-Danny Gargan: Comes of 4th place finish in G1 Bluegrass at Keeneland, and won the G2 Founain of Youth at Gulfstream, a super fast track, and figures to be on the lead. Most people are tossing him due to his post and due to him not looking like one to get the distance. I think he is sprint bred, but his dosage is 2.50.
2. SIERRA LEONE 4-1 Chad Brown: Ran a monster race at Keeneland to win the Grade 1 Bluegrass, and comes from far back. Keeneland is the "class track" of the country, but they rarely run the same way at Churchill, but he figures to be the favorite when the betting is done, due to the experts loving him and Chad Brown and his style. Will likely begin from the very back and make his move late. I think his pedigree is more sprint oriented, but his dosage, which for those of you who are unfamiliar with horse stats you may equate dosage with E.R.A. in Baseball pitching) is a nice 2.00.
3. MYSTIK DAN 50-1 Kenneth McPeek: I will not bet McPeek again, but maybe you'll have better luck with him. This one was 3rd in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby and won the Grade 3 Southwest, both at Oaklawn, which you now know is in Arkansas. It's a pretty good Derby prep race. He figures to be in one of the later packs, probably running somewhere 11th to 17th in the backstretch, a tough place to be. Dosage is 3.00.
4. CATCHING FREEDOM 8-1 Brad Cox: Hot trainer for about the past seven years. Really improves his stable, much like Mc
Gaughey or Mott or Nafzger. Cox has three runners, all of them contenders. This one won the Grade 1 Louisiana Derby, and figures to be near the back of the pack in the backstretch, probably just ahead of Sierra Leone, or maybe with him. Despite looking like one who loves distance, and having a top trainer, his dosage is way too high. Would you want a pitcher with an E.R.A. of 5.67 starting the final game of the world series? That's his dosage, 5.67.
5. CATALYTIC 30-1 S A Joseph Jr.: Joseph has been an up and coming trainer the past few years. Sometimes great, sometimes down, always a surprise. He's capable. This lightly raced one has 3 starts with one win, and his stakes debut earned him a 2nd place finish in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. Most expect a bounce here, but he could just improve again. He looks like he'll be running in the first pick pack of those running 4th to 9th. A tough task for anyone. His pedigree is actually better than indicated by his dosage of 3.00.
6. JUST STEEL 40-1 Wayne Lukas: Talk about a trainer with ups and downs. He's back to being up. Even when he was up in the 20th century, he was not as consistent as Baffert was in the 21st century, but he's more stable now. Just Steel was 2nd in the Arkansas Derby to Muth. How good was Muth? Hard to say. The owner acted like he wanted Muth in the Derby, but if he really wanted Muth in the Derby, he would have chosen a legitimate trainer long ago. This muddles the waters, which muddles how to rate Just Steel. He's already been out 11 times in his career, too many for a 3 year old in May, but he's running solid, and looks to be totally midpack, the toughest place to be in the Derby. His dosage is on the cusp at a high 4.00.
7. HONOR MARIE 6-1 Whitworth Beckman: You've heard of "wise guy horses"? Well, this is the ultimate "wise guy horse", and usually that's bad, but it's hard to knock this one. He looks solid, despite having such a sprint pedigree. He came from far back to run second in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. Will be bet down to probably 3rd choice it appears. Dosage 3.24.
8. JUST A TOUCH 8-1 Brad Cox: A solid 2nd in the biggest of the prep races, the Bluegrass. Showed speed, which means a lot at Keeneland. Lightly raced, improving, well bred, has Cox training, has speed, checks all the boxes. Dosage 3.57.
9. ENCINO is Scratched. I had this one in Pool 5, and he was the one most likely to be a superstar. I hope he doesn't go into the Preakness, because I want him in the Belmont.
10. T O PASSWORD 50-1 Dalsuke Takayangi: Considered the lesser of the 2 from Japan, with 2 wins in 2 starts, but why is he here? A question mark. Despite all the sprint in his pedigree, his dosage is a misleading 1.00.
11. FOREVER YOUNG 20-1 Yoshito Yahagi: This is the trainer who won two Breeders Cup races a few years ago and stunned the world, the first trainer from Japan with huge success in the U.S.. Forever Young has 5 wins in 5 starts, all in UAE and Japan, and some think he will end the curse. Still, the runners from the Orient have to deal with a long quarantine after arriving, which hurts their training and progression. A bit unknown in strategy, but he figures to be in the big packs of those running about 4th to 7th or 8th to 13th. He isn't as well bred as the ones who lost last year, but his dosage is reasonable at 3.00.
12. TRACK PHANTOM 30-1 Steve Asmussen: Usually Asmussen has more backers, but he's considered the lesser of the early speed here. 4th in the Louisiana Derby and 2nd in the Risen Star at Fairgrounds, a usually slow track that may not favor his speed, but Fairgrounds times are faster this year. We'll see if it's because of the surface or because of better runners. Will be right on the lead most likely. I'm not thrilled over his sprint pedigree, but his dosage is much lower than Fierceness at 2.20.
13. WEST SARATOGA 40-1 Larry Demerite: Has already been in too many races. 10 of them, but comes off of 3rd and 2nd place finishes in graded stakes. Runs near the lead, and figures to be very close to the lead, but likely 4th. Pedigree is average and dosage is 3.00.
14. ENDLESSLY 15-1 Michael McCarthy: Won the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Stakes, which most of us still call the Jim Beam, a much better name. His form is going in the right direction. He looks to be running late, and figures to be in the very back of the pack with Sierra, or perhaps in the group running 14th to 17th in the backstretch. Pedigree is solid and dosage is a healthy 2.60.
15. DOMESTIC PRODUCT 20-1 Chad Brown: Won the Grade 3 Tampa Derby, and is improving. We know Chad is a hard trainer who does best in the first or second race off of a long layoff, so he may regress (or bounce down). He should be in the pack running about 14-17th, but may be closer. His pedigree looks good for the distance, and his dosage is a mediocre 3.00.
16. GRAND MO THE FIRST 50-1 V Barboza Jr.: 3rd in the Florida Derby and the Tampa Derby. Looks to be in a pack no matter what. The only real bright spot is that he does have a very good pedigree and a dosage of 1.22.
17. FIERCENESS 9-2 Todd Pletcher: Two Grade 1 wins already! The recent Florida Derby and the 2 year old Breeder's Cup for 2 year olds. No secret that he's going to the front. Will almost surely be leading somewhere in the backstretch. Experts expect fast fractions like 22 and 46, but jockeys and trainers are listening, and may slow it down because of that, but who knows? His pedigree isn't much worse than the others here, but his dosage is too be a favorite at 5.00.
18. STRONGHOLD 12-1 Philip D'Amato: Winner of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, a race not getting respect lately, but historically a huge prep, and he's probably an overlay at 12-1. 3.00
19. RESILIENCE 10-1 Bill Mott: You all probably know I'm a fan of McGaughey and Mott, and McGaughey isn't here, so I'm biased towards him. Since I have him in future book bets, I won't need to put a win bet on him. He won the Grad3 2 Wood at the slow Aqueduct track in the usual Mott improvement style. He was in a race with little speed, which is why he led almost all of the way, but he figures to lay back, probably in the smaller pack running 14-17th. 3.50
20. SOCIETY MAN 40-1 Danny Gargan: 2nd in the Wood: Late blooming. Actually was a huge overlay in the Wood, but the question is if he improved enough for the Kentucky Derby. 3.86
21. EPIC RIDE 30-1 John Ennis: 3rd in the Bluegrass, has been showing early speed, and if that's how he is ridden again, should be running in the big pack of colts running about 4th through 7th in the backstretch. 3.00
22. MUGATU AE Heff Engler: 5th in the Bluegrass, 12 lifetime races already, and if he's fit, will attempt to get 4th or 5th again probably. If he races with the same strategy as before, will be in a "pack" running about 11th to 14th I think. While he isn't exactly bred to run all day, he is bred to improve with time (Gone West twice), and a dosage of 3.00.
So far, there are no defections in the field of 20, but that won't last long. Things happen, and a Derby horse has to be close to 100% to contend.
And for the commies who don't know that this is KENTUCKY DERBY WEEK!!!!!!!, ignorance of the biggest sports event of the year is no excuse for being ignorant, nor for posting anything about stupid non sports stuff like stupid Texas hold em. All such posts will be exiled to Dorkville for the dorks.
All the posts about minor insignificant sports like some of the insignificant unknown things we see here, those will be Anathema.
Right now, the experts are trying to lead people astray. There are a lot of you tube shows with "experts", and most of the "experts" are very knowledgeable, but they are trying to lead you astray with two or three favorites, and their claims that there are three to five top horses this year.
Know this much. The morning line favorite is FIERCENESS, the two year old champ who won the big two year old race in the Breeder's Cup. If he wins, as sometimes the two year old champ does, it means a two year old won the Kentucky Derby of three year old colts, which means we have a horrible group of colts who don't mature beyond the age of two. The two year old champ is a colt who already grew to maturity at an early age, much like the boy who was six foot two in the sixth grade, but who doesn't grow another inch and even shrinks to be shorter than you are at the 40th high school reunion.
Fierceness may win, because sometimes we do get a bad crop of three year old colts for the Derby, and late bloomers haven't bloomed yet. But he doesn't look good. His dosage is too high to be a "favorite", and his speed figures are exaggerated.
About speed figures. The ones on the right in the form are actual scientific speed ratings based on the track records for the race distance. There is a hyphen and another number next to that number, which is the "track variance" or "track differential" as handicappers call it, which is the difference for the winning times that day subtracted from the track records for those distances, which shows how hard and fast the track was.
Therefore, you get somewhat of an idea by adding the two numbers together, although that doesn't work, because slow times are usually for deeper tracks, and some horses fare better on "fast", and some on "slow" tracks. You will note that when the second number is a low number like "07", which means the track was lightning fast that day, that horses who come from the back don't do as well as when the second number is a high number like "33".
Also, some of the races are on turf, which will present a different surface, and some days there are only races that are common distances (6 furlongs, i mile, 1 1/16 mile) which have faster times for the record, because they have been raced fifty times more often than seldom run distances (7 1/2 furlongs, 1 7/16 miles). And there are other variables, such as days (mostly Saturdays) which have a lot of graded stakes races which are expected to be closer to record times.
Then, there are the changes in tracks from year to year. Tampa Bay, for instance, was noted as a track with slower times as far back as the 80s and 90s, because of slower tracks, and that was before Beyer speed ratings was introduced. This meant that a G2 winner at six furlongs might win at 1:12 at Tampa Bay, but would win with a 1:09 at Churchill. It was the long shot track into the 00s. However, during the 2010s it lost its appeal and got lightning fast times, which reversed the winning times. This year, the times at Tampa look slower, but is it because the horses are slower, or because the track is slower?
That's where "track regulars" come in. The people who watch and bet every race every day at every track. No one can afford to do this, of course, so the sports writers make a game of it with play money to keep watch.
That brings us to the speed figures that the "experts" now all go by. The BEYER speed figure, which appears to the left in the form. This is not nearly as scientific, and involves some subjectivity, although the experts who do the BEYER do try hard to make it reasonable, taking all the variables into account.
However, there are sometimes when the "experts" either make a mistake, or deliberately mislead you. I think they are deliberately misleading you this year, because there are some tracks that are lightning fast one year and slow the next year.
Now, the sports writers will keep track of nearly every race every day, but they can't possibly do every track, so they have to limit it to about 20 U.S. tracks, and the sports writers also have to keep up with UK, Ireland, France, Brazil, UAE, and Japan.
So there is no way to do this without making miscalculations.
Some tracks are getting underrated and some are overrated this year, as far as the speed on their tracks.
Now, when it comes to this year, the sports writers already confessed that almost every 3 year old graded stakes race has been won by one of the three favorites of the race, and long prices have done little. When they tell you that this means the races ran true to form, they are lying, although some of them may really be delusional. The odds on a horse have absolutely nothing to do with "form". They are determined by how much money is bet on each horse, which is why the odds change. When someone says he always bets on the second choice, you know he is a moron, because you have no idea who the second choice is in a race until after the race goes off, and even if someone bets on the second choice at the last minute, he's betting down his own odds if he bets more than five dollars on a normal day.
So, what it means is that there have been no surprises this year. No one has "matured", although if you look, you will see some have matured if you know what you're looking for.
Another important item about these colts is that almost all of them have been first or second in almost all of their races all year long.
That means that this year, the Kentucky Derby isn't a "class determined" race, but instead a "class determiner" race, which is what it traditionally was before all those low prices started spoiling the chalk bettors sometime in the 2010s.
Which means anyone can jump up. If you win with a low price horse, you're just downright lucky.
Still, there are some who appear to be "tosses", but it's never safe to "toss". It's just less dangerous.
So, with that said, here are the present post positions (which you probably know means that when one of these scratches, the remainder of those outside move one space inside. I think I said that well enough.)
PROGRAM NUMBER (THIS DOESN'T CHANGE)-PROBABLE ODDS-TRAINER-COMMENTS-DOSAGE
1. DORNOCH 60-1-Danny Gargan: Comes of 4th place finish in G1 Bluegrass at Keeneland, and won the G2 Founain of Youth at Gulfstream, a super fast track, and figures to be on the lead. Most people are tossing him due to his post and due to him not looking like one to get the distance. I think he is sprint bred, but his dosage is 2.50.
2. SIERRA LEONE 4-1 Chad Brown: Ran a monster race at Keeneland to win the Grade 1 Bluegrass, and comes from far back. Keeneland is the "class track" of the country, but they rarely run the same way at Churchill, but he figures to be the favorite when the betting is done, due to the experts loving him and Chad Brown and his style. Will likely begin from the very back and make his move late. I think his pedigree is more sprint oriented, but his dosage, which for those of you who are unfamiliar with horse stats you may equate dosage with E.R.A. in Baseball pitching) is a nice 2.00.
3. MYSTIK DAN 50-1 Kenneth McPeek: I will not bet McPeek again, but maybe you'll have better luck with him. This one was 3rd in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby and won the Grade 3 Southwest, both at Oaklawn, which you now know is in Arkansas. It's a pretty good Derby prep race. He figures to be in one of the later packs, probably running somewhere 11th to 17th in the backstretch, a tough place to be. Dosage is 3.00.
4. CATCHING FREEDOM 8-1 Brad Cox: Hot trainer for about the past seven years. Really improves his stable, much like Mc
Gaughey or Mott or Nafzger. Cox has three runners, all of them contenders. This one won the Grade 1 Louisiana Derby, and figures to be near the back of the pack in the backstretch, probably just ahead of Sierra Leone, or maybe with him. Despite looking like one who loves distance, and having a top trainer, his dosage is way too high. Would you want a pitcher with an E.R.A. of 5.67 starting the final game of the world series? That's his dosage, 5.67.
5. CATALYTIC 30-1 S A Joseph Jr.: Joseph has been an up and coming trainer the past few years. Sometimes great, sometimes down, always a surprise. He's capable. This lightly raced one has 3 starts with one win, and his stakes debut earned him a 2nd place finish in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. Most expect a bounce here, but he could just improve again. He looks like he'll be running in the first pick pack of those running 4th to 9th. A tough task for anyone. His pedigree is actually better than indicated by his dosage of 3.00.
6. JUST STEEL 40-1 Wayne Lukas: Talk about a trainer with ups and downs. He's back to being up. Even when he was up in the 20th century, he was not as consistent as Baffert was in the 21st century, but he's more stable now. Just Steel was 2nd in the Arkansas Derby to Muth. How good was Muth? Hard to say. The owner acted like he wanted Muth in the Derby, but if he really wanted Muth in the Derby, he would have chosen a legitimate trainer long ago. This muddles the waters, which muddles how to rate Just Steel. He's already been out 11 times in his career, too many for a 3 year old in May, but he's running solid, and looks to be totally midpack, the toughest place to be in the Derby. His dosage is on the cusp at a high 4.00.
7. HONOR MARIE 6-1 Whitworth Beckman: You've heard of "wise guy horses"? Well, this is the ultimate "wise guy horse", and usually that's bad, but it's hard to knock this one. He looks solid, despite having such a sprint pedigree. He came from far back to run second in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. Will be bet down to probably 3rd choice it appears. Dosage 3.24.
8. JUST A TOUCH 8-1 Brad Cox: A solid 2nd in the biggest of the prep races, the Bluegrass. Showed speed, which means a lot at Keeneland. Lightly raced, improving, well bred, has Cox training, has speed, checks all the boxes. Dosage 3.57.
9. ENCINO is Scratched. I had this one in Pool 5, and he was the one most likely to be a superstar. I hope he doesn't go into the Preakness, because I want him in the Belmont.
10. T O PASSWORD 50-1 Dalsuke Takayangi: Considered the lesser of the 2 from Japan, with 2 wins in 2 starts, but why is he here? A question mark. Despite all the sprint in his pedigree, his dosage is a misleading 1.00.
11. FOREVER YOUNG 20-1 Yoshito Yahagi: This is the trainer who won two Breeders Cup races a few years ago and stunned the world, the first trainer from Japan with huge success in the U.S.. Forever Young has 5 wins in 5 starts, all in UAE and Japan, and some think he will end the curse. Still, the runners from the Orient have to deal with a long quarantine after arriving, which hurts their training and progression. A bit unknown in strategy, but he figures to be in the big packs of those running about 4th to 7th or 8th to 13th. He isn't as well bred as the ones who lost last year, but his dosage is reasonable at 3.00.
12. TRACK PHANTOM 30-1 Steve Asmussen: Usually Asmussen has more backers, but he's considered the lesser of the early speed here. 4th in the Louisiana Derby and 2nd in the Risen Star at Fairgrounds, a usually slow track that may not favor his speed, but Fairgrounds times are faster this year. We'll see if it's because of the surface or because of better runners. Will be right on the lead most likely. I'm not thrilled over his sprint pedigree, but his dosage is much lower than Fierceness at 2.20.
13. WEST SARATOGA 40-1 Larry Demerite: Has already been in too many races. 10 of them, but comes off of 3rd and 2nd place finishes in graded stakes. Runs near the lead, and figures to be very close to the lead, but likely 4th. Pedigree is average and dosage is 3.00.
14. ENDLESSLY 15-1 Michael McCarthy: Won the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Stakes, which most of us still call the Jim Beam, a much better name. His form is going in the right direction. He looks to be running late, and figures to be in the very back of the pack with Sierra, or perhaps in the group running 14th to 17th in the backstretch. Pedigree is solid and dosage is a healthy 2.60.
15. DOMESTIC PRODUCT 20-1 Chad Brown: Won the Grade 3 Tampa Derby, and is improving. We know Chad is a hard trainer who does best in the first or second race off of a long layoff, so he may regress (or bounce down). He should be in the pack running about 14-17th, but may be closer. His pedigree looks good for the distance, and his dosage is a mediocre 3.00.
16. GRAND MO THE FIRST 50-1 V Barboza Jr.: 3rd in the Florida Derby and the Tampa Derby. Looks to be in a pack no matter what. The only real bright spot is that he does have a very good pedigree and a dosage of 1.22.
17. FIERCENESS 9-2 Todd Pletcher: Two Grade 1 wins already! The recent Florida Derby and the 2 year old Breeder's Cup for 2 year olds. No secret that he's going to the front. Will almost surely be leading somewhere in the backstretch. Experts expect fast fractions like 22 and 46, but jockeys and trainers are listening, and may slow it down because of that, but who knows? His pedigree isn't much worse than the others here, but his dosage is too be a favorite at 5.00.
18. STRONGHOLD 12-1 Philip D'Amato: Winner of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, a race not getting respect lately, but historically a huge prep, and he's probably an overlay at 12-1. 3.00
19. RESILIENCE 10-1 Bill Mott: You all probably know I'm a fan of McGaughey and Mott, and McGaughey isn't here, so I'm biased towards him. Since I have him in future book bets, I won't need to put a win bet on him. He won the Grad3 2 Wood at the slow Aqueduct track in the usual Mott improvement style. He was in a race with little speed, which is why he led almost all of the way, but he figures to lay back, probably in the smaller pack running 14-17th. 3.50
20. SOCIETY MAN 40-1 Danny Gargan: 2nd in the Wood: Late blooming. Actually was a huge overlay in the Wood, but the question is if he improved enough for the Kentucky Derby. 3.86
21. EPIC RIDE 30-1 John Ennis: 3rd in the Bluegrass, has been showing early speed, and if that's how he is ridden again, should be running in the big pack of colts running about 4th through 7th in the backstretch. 3.00
22. MUGATU AE Heff Engler: 5th in the Bluegrass, 12 lifetime races already, and if he's fit, will attempt to get 4th or 5th again probably. If he races with the same strategy as before, will be in a "pack" running about 11th to 14th I think. While he isn't exactly bred to run all day, he is bred to improve with time (Gone West twice), and a dosage of 3.00.
