Post by drystyx on Oct 30, 2024 23:25:14 GMT
For all of you juvenile delinquents. I never heard of a "juvenile anything else", just "juvenile delinquents". So this is for you.
Friday is the two year old day. When you were two, you were no doubt "terrible", but these two year olds are fast.
Held at Del Mar race track on Friday November 1, 2024 A.D., the first five races will be very good races, but not grade 1 Breeder's Cup races. Those will be races 6, 7, 8, 9,D and 10.
I'll have another thread for Saturday's classic.
The format here is
Program Number-Name of runner-probable odds before more scratches-Name of trainer-comments
Race 6: 5 furlong Turf Sprint.
1.OUT ON BAIL-Scratched.Will not run
2. AESTERIUS-8-1 Watson-British invader comes off a grade 2 win, but hasn't yet shown the class of other invaders in six starts. Would be a mild surprise.
3. BIG MOJO-9-2-Appleby-One of the two mainstay trainers from Europe in the Breeders Cup. This one lost by a neck to Aesterius last time out. British invaders generally do well on Breeders Cup turf races.
4. MAGNUM FORCE-15-1 Lyons-Another Euro colt. Ran third to Aesterius and Big Mojo last time by one and a half lengths. Has improved. I look for a "bounce", but he's definitely a contender.
5. ARIZONA BLAZE-12-1 Murray-Figures to be one of the ones near the front at the beginning. Another Euro import.
6. JET SWEEP JOE-20-1 McEntee-Did well in minor stakes, but hasn't handled the class rise.
7. WHISTLEJACK-5-2 O'Brien-The other Euro trainer who commonly goes into the Breeders Cup. This one has the class and speed. Probable favorite.
8. ECORO SIEG 10-1 Mori-Now we get to the first runner from Japan. Japan had a dismal record in derbies and cups for over a decade, despite having the best pedigree for derby distance (Sunday Silence, et al.). I always attributed that to the shipping problems and no great welcome mat, but that has been addressed. Still, they aren't doing as well as people think. This one has two wins in two lifetime starts in Japan, no graded stakes. Likely underlay at 8-1, but a value at more like 15-1.
9. SHAREHOLDER 12-1 Burke-Another Euro invader, with two wins before running poorly in a third start. I would say that he has to prove himself at this level, but some people like to "draw a line" through a certain poor race. Your call. My call is that he is bred to get better with age and distance, so I like him for the upset.
10. GOVERNOR SAM 7-2 Weaver-Weaver does pretty well, though he rarely gets Grade 1 runners in his stable. This one is a speedball who won a stakes at Keeneland, which is the premier track in the U.S. He has 4 wins in 5 starts, with his only loss being his debut. That could be good, since he's improving, or it might be a reason for a backslide (horseplayers call it a bounce) since it's his debut against graded stakes competition. Figures to either roll for first or fade to the back. Not one for a show bet, as a rule.
11. GATE TO WIRE 15-1 Pletcher-A mainstay trainer who is expected to run in these races, no matter what, which is a point against, but he's a top trainer. This one won a maidden, then ran second in New York in a grade 3.
12. IDES OF MARCH 20-1 OBrien-Euro invader with 2 wins in 4 starts. He's improving, with those two wins being his most recent races.
13. Pali Kitten 30-1 O'Neill-this one draws in with the scratch, if he wants to draw in. Wona maiden claimer (which most horse players don't like) and then won a minor stakes in California.
14. SMASH IT AE Pletcher=Not a bad AE if he draws in, though he has only one win in five starts. The other four times he was second. Has the "up and coming" look, though he has yet to face this kind of competition.
Styx pix:
9 SHAREHOLDER
7 Whistlejacket
10 Governor Sam
4 Magnum Force
Race 7 1 1/16 mile 2 year old fillies:
1. VODKA WITH A TWIST 12-1 D'Amato-who usually doesn't get the top horses. This one comes off of a second place finish in California, and is used to this track.
2. SNOWYTE 15-1 Gargan-A maiden who did finish second in a grade 2 last time out. Comes from behind, and it looks very sure that in a field full of speed, Gargan is aiming for minor awards in passing up tired runners. Should be used in the bottom of trifectas and superfectas.
3. IMMERSIVE 7-5 Cox-Super trainer for the past five years or so. This one has three wins in three starts, the most recent one a grade 1 at Keeneland. Deserving favorite.
4. LA CARA 12-1 Mark Casse (full name given, because Norm Casse often enters big races, too)-Casse usually runs in Canada, but came back to Churchill for this one to win a grade 3. Casse was a familiar face in Kentucky in the 80s.
5. QUICKICK 6-1 Amoss-Crafty trainer wouldn't be in a cup race if he didn't think he had a good one. Ran 2nd to likely favorite Immersive at Keeneland.
6. OTOMENA SHACHO 30-1 Japanese import who was beaten soundly by American Bikini.
7.NONCOMPLIANT-SCRATCHED-Will not run
8. NOONI 10-1 Baffert-Looks to be the weakest of Baffert's runners, and the other one scratched. Has gate speed. One for Baffert fans.
9. AMERICAN BIKINI 10-1 Saito-Two wins and a second in three starts in Japan. No graded stakes
10. SCOTTISH LASSIE 4-1 Abreu-Won a grade 1 in New York against Snowyte, her first and only victory in two starts.
Styx pix:
5 QUICKICK
3 Immersive
4 La Cara
2 Snowyte
Race 8: I mile Turf 2 year old fillies:
1. LAKE VICTORIA 3-1 O'Brien-British import comes off of a grade 1 win, and is likely the favorite here.
2. NITROGEN 50-1 Mark Casse-Two lifetime starts, still a maiden. Should be the longest shot on the board
3. CORRETO 15-1 Motion-A win and a third in two starts.
4. SCYTHIAN 10-1 Mott-classic trainer known for patient classic training, has a speedball here with a grade 2 win last time out, in New York.
5. TOTALLY JUSTIFIED 12-1 Arnold-2nd at Keeneland to May Day Ready, a contender.
6. VIRGIN COLADA 15-1 Brown-Chad is a hard trainer, and this one is still in the early stages, so she's a contender. Comes from far back, and has been first or second in all three starts.
7. THOUGHT PROCESS 8-1 D'Amato-Won her most recent three races, including a grade 3. Has speed and rises in class, so the danger is being in a speed duel with top adversaries.
8. HEAVENS GATE 12-1 O'Brien-British invader comes off a grade 3 win.
9. KILWIN 15-1 Arnold-2 wins in two lifetime starts, most recently at the underrated Kentucky Downs, a track with inclines and bends, and perhaps as classy as Keeneland. Can't ignore.
10. ABIENTOT 15-1 Mark Casse Won a grade 3 in New York, coming from way back at a shorter distance. Not sure if she will do the same here or lay closer to the lead. Speculative.
11. FIERY LUCY 30-1 Cromwell-Class jumper from Europe, beaten by many here
12. MAY DAY READY 7-2 Lee-3 wins in three starts, most recently at Keeneland.
13. VIXEN 20-1 Mark Casse-Second in grade 1 at the fast track Woodbine
14. ANSHODA 30-1 Longhmane-Makes big class jump, but did well in UK.
15. SUPA SPEED AE Sadler-A win and a second in two starts at this track
16. TIGERISH AE Baltas-Third in Grade 3 to Thought Process last time out.
17. ACQUITTED AE Mandella-Looks the best of the AE list, an up and comer with one maiden win, and should get huge odds if she draws in.
Styx pix:
12 MAY DAY READY
4 Scythian
9 Kilwin
1 Lake Victoria
Race 9: 1 1/16 mile 2 year olds
1. EAST AVENUE 7-2 Walsh-Lifetime two wins in two starts, has class with a grade 1 win at Keeneland.
2. GETAWAY CAR 15-1 Baffert-Looks to have speed from the gate.
3. HILL ROAD 30-1 Murray-Raced in Ireland. Two races. A maiden win and a seventh place finish in a Grade 1
4. FEROCIOUS 15-1 Delgado-2nd to East Avenue at Keeneland.
5. JONATHAN'S WAY 6-1 Bauer-Two wins in two lifetime starts, the most recent a Grade 3 at Churchill.
6. CITIZEN BULL 6-1 Baffert-Two wins in three starts, the most recent race a grade 1 win at Santa Anita
7. GAMING 4-1 Baffert-Two wins in two starts. Looks the best of Baffert's bunch on paper.
8. SHIN BELIEVE 30-1 Mori-One lifetime start, a maiden win in Japan.
9. ECORO AZEL 20-1 Mori-One win in two starts, all in Japan.
10. CHANCER MCPATRICK 5-2 Brown-Three wins in three starts, all from far back. The one to beat it appears.
Styx pix:
10. CHANCER MCPATRICK but not betting much on it)
3. Hill Road
1. East Avenue
7. Gaming
10th race: 1 mile turf 2 year olds
1. SATONO CARNAVAL 15-1 Mori-Two wins in two lifetime starts in Japan. Does have a lot of Lyphard in his pedigree, so I'm using him.
2. DREAM ON 30-1 Mark Casse-Well bred to improve, but must do it in a hurry to contend here.
3. NOBLE CONFESSOR 40-1 Pletcher-Maiden who would be the shocker of the decade.
4. AL QUDRA 4-1 Appleby-Euro invader already made a start in Canada with a great race to run 2nd in a grade 1.
5. ZULU KINGDOM 6-1 Brown-3 wins in three starts, one in France, two in New York. Obvious contender.
6. IRON MAN CAL 20-1 D'Amato-Placed first through disqualification to win a grade 3 in California at Santa Anita. Can't dismiss for that reason, because Alysheba did the same thing in a race before winning the Kentucky Derby.
7. SEAGULLS ELEVEN 15-1 Palmer-Euro invader comes off a 4th place finish in a grade 1. Looks to be near the lead early.
8. MINARET STATION 6-1 William Walden-For some reason classic trainer's Eliot's son went off at 38-1 to win a grade 2 at Keeneland. The one to beat.
9. THE WACO KID 20-1 Palmer-One of the cheaper Euro imports, but did win a grade 3 last time out
10. MENTEE 20-1 Pletcher-Speedball who figures to run early and hopes to hang on.
11. NEW CENTURY 8-1 Baiding-Began in Great Britian. Shipped over to win at Woodbine from way behind the other runners.
12. AOMORI CITY 8-1 Appleby-2 wins in 4 starts in Europe
13. HENRI MATISSE 8-1 O'Brien-5th in a grade 1 last time out in France
14. TENACIOUS LEADER 15-1 Pletcher-A win and a second in four starts. Looks outmatched, but running style could help get a minor award.
15. SABERTOOTH AE Yakteen-Trainer got fame when replacing Baffert for a while. This one ran third in a grade 3 last time out in an even race.
16. KALE'S ANGEL AE Miller-Trainer dominated one Breeder's Cup not too long ago. Would be a surprise with this one, but careful if he draws in. A good 4th in a grade 3 last time out.
Styx pix:
8. MINARET STATION
1. Satono Carnaval
13. Henri Matisse
5. Zulu Kingdom
Friday is the two year old day. When you were two, you were no doubt "terrible", but these two year olds are fast.
Held at Del Mar race track on Friday November 1, 2024 A.D., the first five races will be very good races, but not grade 1 Breeder's Cup races. Those will be races 6, 7, 8, 9,D and 10.
I'll have another thread for Saturday's classic.
The format here is
Program Number-Name of runner-probable odds before more scratches-Name of trainer-comments
Race 6: 5 furlong Turf Sprint.
1.
2. AESTERIUS-8-1 Watson-British invader comes off a grade 2 win, but hasn't yet shown the class of other invaders in six starts. Would be a mild surprise.
3. BIG MOJO-9-2-Appleby-One of the two mainstay trainers from Europe in the Breeders Cup. This one lost by a neck to Aesterius last time out. British invaders generally do well on Breeders Cup turf races.
4. MAGNUM FORCE-15-1 Lyons-Another Euro colt. Ran third to Aesterius and Big Mojo last time by one and a half lengths. Has improved. I look for a "bounce", but he's definitely a contender.
5. ARIZONA BLAZE-12-1 Murray-Figures to be one of the ones near the front at the beginning. Another Euro import.
6. JET SWEEP JOE-20-1 McEntee-Did well in minor stakes, but hasn't handled the class rise.
7. WHISTLEJACK-5-2 O'Brien-The other Euro trainer who commonly goes into the Breeders Cup. This one has the class and speed. Probable favorite.
8. ECORO SIEG 10-1 Mori-Now we get to the first runner from Japan. Japan had a dismal record in derbies and cups for over a decade, despite having the best pedigree for derby distance (Sunday Silence, et al.). I always attributed that to the shipping problems and no great welcome mat, but that has been addressed. Still, they aren't doing as well as people think. This one has two wins in two lifetime starts in Japan, no graded stakes. Likely underlay at 8-1, but a value at more like 15-1.
9. SHAREHOLDER 12-1 Burke-Another Euro invader, with two wins before running poorly in a third start. I would say that he has to prove himself at this level, but some people like to "draw a line" through a certain poor race. Your call. My call is that he is bred to get better with age and distance, so I like him for the upset.
10. GOVERNOR SAM 7-2 Weaver-Weaver does pretty well, though he rarely gets Grade 1 runners in his stable. This one is a speedball who won a stakes at Keeneland, which is the premier track in the U.S. He has 4 wins in 5 starts, with his only loss being his debut. That could be good, since he's improving, or it might be a reason for a backslide (horseplayers call it a bounce) since it's his debut against graded stakes competition. Figures to either roll for first or fade to the back. Not one for a show bet, as a rule.
11. GATE TO WIRE 15-1 Pletcher-A mainstay trainer who is expected to run in these races, no matter what, which is a point against, but he's a top trainer. This one won a maidden, then ran second in New York in a grade 3.
12. IDES OF MARCH 20-1 OBrien-Euro invader with 2 wins in 4 starts. He's improving, with those two wins being his most recent races.
13. Pali Kitten 30-1 O'Neill-this one draws in with the scratch, if he wants to draw in. Wona maiden claimer (which most horse players don't like) and then won a minor stakes in California.
14. SMASH IT AE Pletcher=Not a bad AE if he draws in, though he has only one win in five starts. The other four times he was second. Has the "up and coming" look, though he has yet to face this kind of competition.
Styx pix:
9 SHAREHOLDER
7 Whistlejacket
10 Governor Sam
4 Magnum Force
Race 7 1 1/16 mile 2 year old fillies:
1. VODKA WITH A TWIST 12-1 D'Amato-who usually doesn't get the top horses. This one comes off of a second place finish in California, and is used to this track.
2. SNOWYTE 15-1 Gargan-A maiden who did finish second in a grade 2 last time out. Comes from behind, and it looks very sure that in a field full of speed, Gargan is aiming for minor awards in passing up tired runners. Should be used in the bottom of trifectas and superfectas.
3. IMMERSIVE 7-5 Cox-Super trainer for the past five years or so. This one has three wins in three starts, the most recent one a grade 1 at Keeneland. Deserving favorite.
4. LA CARA 12-1 Mark Casse (full name given, because Norm Casse often enters big races, too)-Casse usually runs in Canada, but came back to Churchill for this one to win a grade 3. Casse was a familiar face in Kentucky in the 80s.
5. QUICKICK 6-1 Amoss-Crafty trainer wouldn't be in a cup race if he didn't think he had a good one. Ran 2nd to likely favorite Immersive at Keeneland.
6. OTOMENA SHACHO 30-1 Japanese import who was beaten soundly by American Bikini.
7.
8. NOONI 10-1 Baffert-Looks to be the weakest of Baffert's runners, and the other one scratched. Has gate speed. One for Baffert fans.
9. AMERICAN BIKINI 10-1 Saito-Two wins and a second in three starts in Japan. No graded stakes
10. SCOTTISH LASSIE 4-1 Abreu-Won a grade 1 in New York against Snowyte, her first and only victory in two starts.
Styx pix:
5 QUICKICK
3 Immersive
4 La Cara
2 Snowyte
Race 8: I mile Turf 2 year old fillies:
1. LAKE VICTORIA 3-1 O'Brien-British import comes off of a grade 1 win, and is likely the favorite here.
2. NITROGEN 50-1 Mark Casse-Two lifetime starts, still a maiden. Should be the longest shot on the board
3. CORRETO 15-1 Motion-A win and a third in two starts.
4. SCYTHIAN 10-1 Mott-classic trainer known for patient classic training, has a speedball here with a grade 2 win last time out, in New York.
5. TOTALLY JUSTIFIED 12-1 Arnold-2nd at Keeneland to May Day Ready, a contender.
6. VIRGIN COLADA 15-1 Brown-Chad is a hard trainer, and this one is still in the early stages, so she's a contender. Comes from far back, and has been first or second in all three starts.
7. THOUGHT PROCESS 8-1 D'Amato-Won her most recent three races, including a grade 3. Has speed and rises in class, so the danger is being in a speed duel with top adversaries.
8. HEAVENS GATE 12-1 O'Brien-British invader comes off a grade 3 win.
9. KILWIN 15-1 Arnold-2 wins in two lifetime starts, most recently at the underrated Kentucky Downs, a track with inclines and bends, and perhaps as classy as Keeneland. Can't ignore.
10. ABIENTOT 15-1 Mark Casse Won a grade 3 in New York, coming from way back at a shorter distance. Not sure if she will do the same here or lay closer to the lead. Speculative.
11. FIERY LUCY 30-1 Cromwell-Class jumper from Europe, beaten by many here
12. MAY DAY READY 7-2 Lee-3 wins in three starts, most recently at Keeneland.
13. VIXEN 20-1 Mark Casse-Second in grade 1 at the fast track Woodbine
14. ANSHODA 30-1 Longhmane-Makes big class jump, but did well in UK.
15. SUPA SPEED AE Sadler-A win and a second in two starts at this track
16. TIGERISH AE Baltas-Third in Grade 3 to Thought Process last time out.
17. ACQUITTED AE Mandella-Looks the best of the AE list, an up and comer with one maiden win, and should get huge odds if she draws in.
Styx pix:
12 MAY DAY READY
4 Scythian
9 Kilwin
1 Lake Victoria
Race 9: 1 1/16 mile 2 year olds
1. EAST AVENUE 7-2 Walsh-Lifetime two wins in two starts, has class with a grade 1 win at Keeneland.
2. GETAWAY CAR 15-1 Baffert-Looks to have speed from the gate.
3. HILL ROAD 30-1 Murray-Raced in Ireland. Two races. A maiden win and a seventh place finish in a Grade 1
4. FEROCIOUS 15-1 Delgado-2nd to East Avenue at Keeneland.
5. JONATHAN'S WAY 6-1 Bauer-Two wins in two lifetime starts, the most recent a Grade 3 at Churchill.
6. CITIZEN BULL 6-1 Baffert-Two wins in three starts, the most recent race a grade 1 win at Santa Anita
7. GAMING 4-1 Baffert-Two wins in two starts. Looks the best of Baffert's bunch on paper.
8. SHIN BELIEVE 30-1 Mori-One lifetime start, a maiden win in Japan.
9. ECORO AZEL 20-1 Mori-One win in two starts, all in Japan.
10. CHANCER MCPATRICK 5-2 Brown-Three wins in three starts, all from far back. The one to beat it appears.
Styx pix:
10. CHANCER MCPATRICK but not betting much on it)
3. Hill Road
1. East Avenue
7. Gaming
10th race: 1 mile turf 2 year olds
1. SATONO CARNAVAL 15-1 Mori-Two wins in two lifetime starts in Japan. Does have a lot of Lyphard in his pedigree, so I'm using him.
2. DREAM ON 30-1 Mark Casse-Well bred to improve, but must do it in a hurry to contend here.
3. NOBLE CONFESSOR 40-1 Pletcher-Maiden who would be the shocker of the decade.
4. AL QUDRA 4-1 Appleby-Euro invader already made a start in Canada with a great race to run 2nd in a grade 1.
5. ZULU KINGDOM 6-1 Brown-3 wins in three starts, one in France, two in New York. Obvious contender.
6. IRON MAN CAL 20-1 D'Amato-Placed first through disqualification to win a grade 3 in California at Santa Anita. Can't dismiss for that reason, because Alysheba did the same thing in a race before winning the Kentucky Derby.
7. SEAGULLS ELEVEN 15-1 Palmer-Euro invader comes off a 4th place finish in a grade 1. Looks to be near the lead early.
8. MINARET STATION 6-1 William Walden-For some reason classic trainer's Eliot's son went off at 38-1 to win a grade 2 at Keeneland. The one to beat.
9. THE WACO KID 20-1 Palmer-One of the cheaper Euro imports, but did win a grade 3 last time out
10. MENTEE 20-1 Pletcher-Speedball who figures to run early and hopes to hang on.
11. NEW CENTURY 8-1 Baiding-Began in Great Britian. Shipped over to win at Woodbine from way behind the other runners.
12. AOMORI CITY 8-1 Appleby-2 wins in 4 starts in Europe
13. HENRI MATISSE 8-1 O'Brien-5th in a grade 1 last time out in France
14. TENACIOUS LEADER 15-1 Pletcher-A win and a second in four starts. Looks outmatched, but running style could help get a minor award.
15. SABERTOOTH AE Yakteen-Trainer got fame when replacing Baffert for a while. This one ran third in a grade 3 last time out in an even race.
16. KALE'S ANGEL AE Miller-Trainer dominated one Breeder's Cup not too long ago. Would be a surprise with this one, but careful if he draws in. A good 4th in a grade 3 last time out.
Styx pix:
8. MINARET STATION
1. Satono Carnaval
13. Henri Matisse
5. Zulu Kingdom